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pmip3:design:lm:final [2009/12/21 22:32] gavin |
pmip3:design:lm:final [2011/03/15 10:30] jypeter Updated link to Kaplan/Krumhardt data set |
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<html><a name="page_top_tag"> </a></html> | <html><a name="page_top_tag"> </a></html> | ||
- | //Go to =>// [ [[pmip3:design:pi:final|PI]] ] - [ [[pmip3:design:6k:final|6ka]] ] - [ [[pmip3:design:21k:final|21ka]] ] - [ **LM** ] | + | //Go to =>// [ [[pmip3:design:pi:final|PI]] ] - [ [[pmip3:design:6k:final|6ka]] ] - [ [[pmip3:design:21k:final|21ka]] ] - [ **LM** ] & Non-CMIP5 exps: [ [[pmip3:design:li:final|LI]] ] |
====== Last Millennium Experimental Design ====== | ====== Last Millennium Experimental Design ====== | ||
- | The basic principle is that we should strive to include all relevant transient forcings over this period if the functionality exists in the model, noting that conformability with the CMIP5 controls and 20th Century transient is crucial. | + | The basic principle is that we should strive to include all relevant transient forcings over this period if the functionality exists in the model, noting that conformability with the CMIP5 controls and 20th Century transient is crucial. |
+ | |||
+ | <note important>Please check also the [[http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/4/33/2011/|Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the last millennium (v1.0)]] paper on the GMD (Geoscientific Model Development) web site.</note> | ||
===== Boundary conditions ===== | ===== Boundary conditions ===== | ||
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^ ^ PMIP3 ^ Alternative solution ^ | ^ ^ PMIP3 ^ Alternative solution ^ | ||
- | | Orbital parameters | Annually varying\\ [[index#orbital_forcing|Table provided (0-2100 CE/AD), if not internally calculated]] | | | + | | Orbital parameters | Annually varying\\ [[final#orbital_forcing|Table provided (0-2100 CE/AD), if not internally calculated]] | | |
| Date of vernal equinox | March 21 at Noon | | | | Date of vernal equinox | March 21 at Noon | | | ||
- | | Trace gases | Annually varying (850-1850) ([[index#reconstructed_evolution_of_trace_gases|Table provided]]) | | | + | | Trace gases | Annually varying (850-1850) ([[final#reconstructed_evolution_of_trace_gases|Table provided]]) | | |
| Volcanic Aerosols | Multiple reconstructions (of AOD, Effective Radius, Mass) | | | | Volcanic Aerosols | Multiple reconstructions (of AOD, Effective Radius, Mass) | | | ||
| Solar irradiance | choose at least one between Multiple reconstructions provided below | | | | Solar irradiance | choose at least one between Multiple reconstructions provided below | | | ||
| Ozone | solar related variations (parameterised as function of change in solar irradiance - Drew Shindell) | same as in CMIP5 PI | | | Ozone | solar related variations (parameterised as function of change in solar irradiance - Drew Shindell) | same as in CMIP5 PI | | ||
| Aerosols | biomass burning changes???? | same as in CMIP5 PI | | | Aerosols | biomass burning changes???? | same as in CMIP5 PI | | ||
- | | Vegetation | Land use conversion (forests to C3/C4 crops) (Pongratz, 2009, Foley and Ramunkutty)\\ Provided below | same as in CMIP5 PI | | + | | Vegetation | Land cover change (natural vegetation to crop/C3 pasture/C4 pasture)\\ (Pongratz et al., 2008; Ramankutty and Foley, 1999)\\ [[final#vegetation|Provided below]] | same as in CMIP5 PI | |
| Ice sheets | No changes from Pre-Ind control | | | | Ice sheets | No changes from Pre-Ind control | | | ||
| Topography and coastlines | same as in CMIP5 PI | | | | Topography and coastlines | same as in CMIP5 PI | | | ||
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==== Total Solar Irradiance ==== | ==== Total Solar Irradiance ==== | ||
- | Multiple reconstructions of annual total solar irradiance are provided. These are designed to either fit smoothly with the reconstructions used in the post-1850 CMIP5 simulations (Wang, Lean and Sheely (2005)), or to explore independent estimates of the long term solar trends. Each series has an 11 year solar cycle throughout the time series (synthetic for pre-1610, based on a relationship between cycle magnitude and long-term TSI) and comes with an estimate of the spectral changes (as a function of the TSI anomaly). Each reconstruction is calibrated to the WLS modern values. | + | Multiple reconstructions of annual total solar irradiance are [[https://pmip3.lsce.ipsl.fr/share/design/lm/solar_Dec21.tar.gz | provided]]. These are designed to either fit smoothly with the reconstructions used in the post-1850 CMIP5 simulations (Wang, Lean and Sheely (2005)), or to explore independent estimates of the long term solar trends. Each series has an 11 year solar cycle throughout the time series (synthetic for pre-1610, based on a relationship between cycle magnitude and long-term TSI) and comes with an estimate of the spectral changes (as a function of the TSI anomaly). Each reconstruction is calibrated to the [[http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/forschung/SOLARIS/Input_data/CMIP5_solar_irradiance.html | WLS modern values]]. See the [[https://pmip3.lsce.ipsl.fr/share/design/lm/README.txt | README.txt]] file for details of filenames and formats. |
=== Wang, Lean and Sheely (WLS): 1610-2000 CE === | === Wang, Lean and Sheely (WLS): 1610-2000 CE === | ||
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Lean J, [[http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/forschung/SOLARIS/Input_data/Calculations_of_Solar_Irradiance.pdf | "Calculations of Solar Irradiance" ]] | Lean J, [[http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/forschung/SOLARIS/Input_data/Calculations_of_Solar_Irradiance.pdf | "Calculations of Solar Irradiance" ]] | ||
- | Wang, Y.-M., J. L. Lean, and N. R. Sheeley, Jr. (2005), Modeling the Sun’s Magnetic Field and Irradiance since 1713, ApJ, 625, 522–538, doi:10.1086/429689. | + | Wang, Y.-M., J. L. Lean, and N. R. Sheeley, Jr. (2005), Modeling the Sun’s Magnetic Field and Irradiance since 1713, ApJ, 625, 522–538, doi:[[http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/429689|10.1086/429689]]. |
=== Delaygue and Bard (DB): 850-1609 CE === | === Delaygue and Bard (DB): 850-1609 CE === | ||
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Reconstruction based on the 14C record scaled based on an inverse regression to the two WLS reconstructions. | Reconstruction based on the 14C record scaled based on an inverse regression to the two WLS reconstructions. | ||
- | Muscheler, R., F. Joos, J. Beer, S.A. Müller, M. Vonmoos, and I. Snowball (2007), Solar activity during the last 1000 yr inferred from radionuclide records Quaternary Science Reviews, Vol. 26, pp. 82-97. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2006.07.012 | + | Muscheler, R., F. Joos, J. Beer, S.A. Müller, M. Vonmoos, and I. Snowball (2007), Solar activity during the last 1000 yr inferred from radionuclide records Quaternary Science Reviews, Vol. 26, pp. 82-97. doi:[[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2006.07.012|10.1016/j.quascirev.2006.07.012]] |
=== Vieira, Krivova and Solanki (VK): 850-1849 CE === | === Vieira, Krivova and Solanki (VK): 850-1849 CE === | ||
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Reconstruction based on a model of the open and closed magnetic flux including an estimate of the 11 yr cycle. We recommend patching this into the WLS w/background values in 1850. | Reconstruction based on a model of the open and closed magnetic flux including an estimate of the 11 yr cycle. We recommend patching this into the WLS w/background values in 1850. | ||
- | Vieira, L.E.A., and S. Solanki (2009), Evolution of the solar magnetic flux on time scales of years to millenia, [[http://eprintweb.org/S/authors/All/so/Solanki/2 arXiv/0911.4396]], doi:10.1051/0004-6361/200913276 | + | N.A. Krivova, L. Balmaceda and S.K. Solanki, (2007), Reconstruction of solar total irradiance since 1700 from the surface magnetic flux. Astronomy and Astrophysics, 467, 335-346.[[http://www.mps.mpg.de/homes/natalie/PAPERS/aa6725-06.pdf]] |
+ | |||
+ | Vieira, L.E.A., and S. Solanki (2009), Evolution of the solar magnetic flux on time scales of years to millenia, [[http://eprintweb.org/S/authors/All/so/Solanki/2 | arXiv/0911.4396]], doi:[[http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/200913276|10.1051/0004-6361/200913276]] | ||
=== Steinhilber, Beer, and Frohlich (SBF): 850-1849 CE === | === Steinhilber, Beer, and Frohlich (SBF): 850-1849 CE === | ||
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Reconstruction based on a Greenland 10Be core and a different model of solar flux. 11yr cycle is synthetic. We recommend patching this into the WLS w/background values in 1850. | Reconstruction based on a Greenland 10Be core and a different model of solar flux. 11yr cycle is synthetic. We recommend patching this into the WLS w/background values in 1850. | ||
- | Steinhilber, F., J. Beer, and C. Frohlich (2009), Total solar irradiance during the Holocene, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19704, doi:10.1029/2009GL040142. | + | Steinhilber, F., J. Beer, and C. Frohlich (2009), Total solar irradiance during the Holocene, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19704, doi:[[http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040142|10.1029/2009GL040142]]. |
==== Solar-driven Ozone variations ==== | ==== Solar-driven Ozone variations ==== | ||
- | A parameterisation of ozone changes in the atmosphere (lat, lon, altitude) as a function of changing solar irradiance (including spectral variations) is available based on the results of Shindell et al (2006). | + | A parameterisation of ozone changes in the atmosphere (lat, lon, altitude) as a function of changing solar irradiance (including spectral variations) is available based on the results of Shindell et al (2006). Data file: [[http://www.giss.nasa.gov/staff/gschmidt/dO3_shindell | dO3_shindell]], data description: [[http://www.giss.nasa.gov/staff/gschmidt/ozone-feedback.txt | ozone-feedback.txt]]. |
- | Shindell, D.T., G. Faluvegi, R.L. Miller, G.A. Schmidt, J.E. Hansen, and S. Sun, 2006: Solar and anthropogenic forcing of tropical hydrology. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L24706, doi:10.1029/2006GL027468,2006. [[http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2006/2006_Shindell_etal_4.pdf]] | + | Shindell, D.T., G. Faluvegi, R.L. Miller, G.A. Schmidt, J.E. Hansen, and S. Sun, 2006: Solar and anthropogenic forcing of tropical hydrology. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L24706, doi:[[http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027468|10.1029/2006GL027468]],2006. [[http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2006/2006_Shindell_etal_4.pdf]] |
==== Volcanic Forcings ==== | ==== Volcanic Forcings ==== | ||
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The stratospheric aerosol loadings (in units of Tg) provided in the IVI2 data set may be converted into aerosol optical depth (AOD) by dividing the loadings by 150 Tg (Stothers, 1984). The AOD time series can then be used to calculate the corresponding radiative forcing (in units of Wm-2) by multiplying it by (-20) (Wigley et al., 2005). The conversion to AOD is valid for aerosols with effective radius in the visible spectral range. | The stratospheric aerosol loadings (in units of Tg) provided in the IVI2 data set may be converted into aerosol optical depth (AOD) by dividing the loadings by 150 Tg (Stothers, 1984). The AOD time series can then be used to calculate the corresponding radiative forcing (in units of Wm-2) by multiplying it by (-20) (Wigley et al., 2005). The conversion to AOD is valid for aerosols with effective radius in the visible spectral range. | ||
- | Further explanation is provided here : {{:pmip3:design:lm:ivi2aodtsiconversion.pdf|}} | + | Note: the ''IVI2TotalLoading501-2000.txt'' dataset file has a misleading name and gives the //Total Injection//, **not** //Loading//. |
- | Gao, C., A. Robock, and C. Ammann: Volcanic forcing of climate over the last 1500 years: An improved ice-core based index for climate models. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D2311, doi:10.1029/2008JD010239 (2008). | + | Gao, C., A. Robock, and C. Ammann: Volcanic forcing of climate over the last 1500 years: An improved ice-core based index for climate models. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D2311, doi:[[http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010239|10.1029/2008JD010239]] (2008). |
Stothers, R.B., The great Tambora eruptions in 1815 and its aftermath. Science, 224(4654), 1191-1198 (1984). | Stothers, R.B., The great Tambora eruptions in 1815 and its aftermath. Science, 224(4654), 1191-1198 (1984). | ||
- | Wigley, T.M.L., C.M. Ammann, B.D. santer, and S.C.B. Raper: Effect of climate sensitivity on the response of volcanic forcing. J. Geophys. Res., 110,D09107, doi:10.1029/2004JD005557 | + | Wigley, T.M.L., C.M. Ammann, B.D. santer, and S.C.B. Raper: Effect of climate sensitivity on the response of volcanic forcing. J. Geophys. Res., 110,D09107, doi:[[http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005557|10.1029/2004JD005557]] |
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Sensitivity experiments for the model response to the Pinatubo eruption yield an average global temperature change (0.4 K) comparable to observations. For the largest eruption of the last millennium, the 1258 AD eruption, a NH summer temperature anomaly over land of 1.2 K is found in agreement with reconstructions (Timmreck et al., 2009) | Sensitivity experiments for the model response to the Pinatubo eruption yield an average global temperature change (0.4 K) comparable to observations. For the largest eruption of the last millennium, the 1258 AD eruption, a NH summer temperature anomaly over land of 1.2 K is found in agreement with reconstructions (Timmreck et al., 2009) | ||
+ | |||
+ | The dataset is available in a {{:pmip3:design:lm:ici5_aod_reff_c.zip|zip file}}. | ||
Crowley, T. et al. Volcanism and the Little Ice Age. PAGES Newsletter, 16, 22-23 (2008). | Crowley, T. et al. Volcanism and the Little Ice Age. PAGES Newsletter, 16, 22-23 (2008). | ||
- | Sato, M., Hansen, J.E., McCormick, M.P. & Pollack, J.B. Stratospheric aerosol optical depths, 1850-1990. J. Geophys. Res., 98(D12), 22,987-22,994, doi:10.1029/93JD02553 (1993). | + | Sato, M., Hansen, J.E., McCormick, M.P. & Pollack, J.B. Stratospheric aerosol optical depths, 1850-1990. J. Geophys. Res., 98(D12), 22,987-22,994, doi:[[http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/93JD02553|10.1029/93JD02553]] (1993). |
- | Pinto, J.P., Turco, R.P., & Toon, O.B. Self-limiting physical and chemical effects in volcanic eruption clouds. J. Geophys. Res., 94(D8), 11,165-11,174, doi:10.1029/JD094iD08p11165 (1989). | + | Pinto, J.P., Turco, R.P., & Toon, O.B. Self-limiting physical and chemical effects in volcanic eruption clouds. J. Geophys. Res., 94(D8), 11,165-11,174, doi:[[http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/JD094iD08p11165|10.1029/JD094iD08p11165]] (1989). |
- | Timmreck, C. et al. Limited temperature response to the very large AD 1258 volcanic eruption. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L21708, doi:10.1029/2009GL040083 (2009). | + | Timmreck, C. et al. Limited temperature response to the very large AD 1258 volcanic eruption. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L21708, doi:[[http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040083|10.1029/2009GL040083]] (2009). |
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The global maps with a spatial resolution of 0.5° and an annual timescale contain 14 vegetation types and discriminate between the agricultural categories cropland, and C3 and C4 pastures. The reconstruction merges published maps of agriculture from AD1700 to 1992 and a population-based approach to quantify agriculture from AD 800 to 1700. | The global maps with a spatial resolution of 0.5° and an annual timescale contain 14 vegetation types and discriminate between the agricultural categories cropland, and C3 and C4 pastures. The reconstruction merges published maps of agriculture from AD1700 to 1992 and a population-based approach to quantify agriculture from AD 800 to 1700. | ||
- | The data set can be obtained from the World Data Center for Climate (doi:10.1594/WDCC/RECON_LAND_COVER_800-1992). | + | The data set can be obtained from the World Data Center for Climate (doi:[[http://dx.doi.org/10.1594/WDCC/RECON_LAND_COVER_800-1992|10.1594/WDCC/RECON_LAND_COVER_800-1992]]), along with two alternate maximum and minimum reconstructions that can be used to test the structural uncertainty. |
- | Pongratz, J., Reick, C.H., Raddatz, T. & Claussen, M. A reconstruction of global agricultural areas and land cover for the last millennium. Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 22, GB3018, doi:10.1029/2007GB003153 (2008). | + | Pongratz, J., Reick, C.H., Raddatz, T. & Claussen, M. A reconstruction of global agricultural areas and land cover for the last millennium. Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 22, GB3018, doi:[[http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007GB003153|10.1029/2007GB003153]] (2008). |
To access the files, click here [[http://cera-www.dkrz.de/WDCC/ui/Entry.jsp?acronym=RECON_LAND_COVER_800-1992|RECON_LAND_COVER_800-1992]] | To access the files, click here [[http://cera-www.dkrz.de/WDCC/ui/Entry.jsp?acronym=RECON_LAND_COVER_800-1992|RECON_LAND_COVER_800-1992]] | ||
+ | |||
+ | === Alternative scenario === | ||
+ | |||
+ | The following alternative anthropogenic land use forcing data set has been provided by [[jed.kaplan@epfl.ch|Jed Kaplan]] and [[kristen.krumhardt@epfl.ch|Kristen Marie Krumhardt]] | ||
+ | |||
+ | [[http://ecospriv4.epfl.ch/pub/KK10_AD850-1850.nc.gz|KK10_AD850-1850.nc (1.2 Gb)]] | ||
+ | |||
+ | Kaplan, J. O., Krumhardt, K. M., Ellis, E. C., Ruddiman, W. F., Lemmen, C. and Goldewijk, K. K. 2010. Holocene carbon emissions as a result of anthropogenic land cover change. The Holocene, doi:[[http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0959683610386983|10.1177/0959683610386983]]. | ||
===== Initial conditions ===== | ===== Initial conditions ===== | ||
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| Model spin up | Same as in PI | | | | Model spin up | Same as in PI | | | ||
+ | ===== Links ===== | ||
+ | |||
+ | * [[http://www.geosci-model-dev-discuss.net/3/1549/2010/gmdd-3-1549-2010.html|Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the last millennium (v1.0)]] paper | ||
+ | |||
+ | * PCMIP Project (**P**alaeo**C**arbon **M**odelling **I**ntercomparison **P**roject)\\ http://www.bridge.bris.ac.uk/projects/pcmip | ||
+ | |||
+ | * CMIP5 (**C**oupled **M**odel **I**ntercomparison **P**roject Phase **5**)\\ http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/ | ||
\\ \\ \\ | \\ \\ \\ | ||
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