pmip3:wg:p2f:index
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pmip3:wg:p2f:index [2014/07/22 07:39] jules [PMIP3 WG - Past to Future (P2F)] |
pmip3:wg:p2f:index [2017/02/13 14:12] jules |
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| ====== PMIP3 WG - Past to Future (P2F) ====== | ====== PMIP3 WG - Past to Future (P2F) ====== | ||
| - | **Coordinator: [[jules@jamstec.go.jp|Julia Hargreaves]]** | + | **Coordinator: [[jules@blueskiesresearch.org.uk|Julia Hargreaves]]** |
| + | **Co-coordinator: [[aschmitt@coas.oregonstate.edu|Andreas Schmittner]]** | ||
| - | **Co-coordinator: [[aschmitt@coas.oregonstate.edu|Andreas Schmittner]]** | + | ===== The P2F challenge ===== |
| - | ====== Group description ====== | + | |
| + | To use paleoclimate information to improve predictions of climate change | ||
| + | |||
| + | ===== Group description ===== | ||
| - | |||
| Paleoclimate modellers have for many years argued the importance of paleoclimate simulations as a means of increasing understanding of the climate system. However, it is only in the latest iteration of the climate model inter-comparison project (CMIP5) that paleoclimate runs have been officially included. This means that, for the first time, there exists a coherent ensemble of climate models run for past climates, recent historical, control and future scenarios. | Paleoclimate modellers have for many years argued the importance of paleoclimate simulations as a means of increasing understanding of the climate system. However, it is only in the latest iteration of the climate model inter-comparison project (CMIP5) that paleoclimate runs have been officially included. This means that, for the first time, there exists a coherent ensemble of climate models run for past climates, recent historical, control and future scenarios. | ||
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| The working group was initiated at the PMIP3 2012 Crewe meeting | The working group was initiated at the PMIP3 2012 Crewe meeting | ||
| - | ===== Focus of the P2F Working group ===== | ||
| - | |||
| - | Aims and Scope v2.1, July 2014. Compared to v2.0, the strategy has been slightly revised to include consideration of processes and explicitly include comparison with data. | ||
| - | See below in Previous Aims and Scopes section for v2.0, June 2014, which resulted from the PMIP3 meeting, 25-30 May 2014, Namur, Belgium. | ||
| - | |||
| - | ==== The P2F challenge ==== | ||
| - | |||
| - | To use paleoclimate information to improve predictions of climate change | ||
| - | |||
| - | ==== Strategy - methodology ==== | ||
| - | |||
| - | - Identify and document quantitative relationships between past and future runs and check consistency with available observations. | ||
| - | - Identify and implement suitable methodologies to use the information to explore quantitative constraints on future climate change. | ||
| - | - Identify whether underlying mechanisms between past and future changes are the same. | ||
| - | |||
| - | * Code for methodologies should be fully published to enable participation of others | ||
| - | ==== Targets ==== | ||
| - | |||
| - | - Estimating future climate by exploring information from multiple PMIP intervals. | ||
| - | - Exploring divergent estimates of climate sensitivity - towards reconciliation. | ||
| - | - Predicting regional climate change - beyond climate sensitivity | ||
| - | |||
| - | * More targets? This is open to development later. | ||
| - | |||
| - | ==== Other things ==== | ||
| - | |||
| - | * Considerable interaction with the rest of PMIP will be required. | ||
| - | * Model and data from all intervals needs to be publicly available. | ||
| - | * P2F analyses focus on quantitative methodologies so will require input from process based experts | ||
| - | |||
| - | * Dan Lunt has funds to host a workshop in the UK on Past to Future, sometime in the next couple of years. | ||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | ===== Previous Aims and Scope documents ===== | ||
| - | |||
| - | [[Aims_and_Scope_v1.0|Aims and Scope (v1.0)]] of the P2F working group. | ||
| - | |||
| - | [[Aims_and_Scope_v2.0|Aims and Scope (v2.0)]] of the P2F working group, June 2014. | ||
| - | ===== More ===== | ||
| + | * [[Current Aims and Scope|Aims and Scope]] | ||
| * [[members|Members and mailing list]] | * [[members|Members and mailing list]] | ||
| * Resources | * Resources | ||
| - | * [[Models|About paleoclimate models]] | ||
| - | * [[Data|About paleoclimate data]] | ||
| * [[Methods|Methods for combining data and models]] | * [[Methods|Methods for combining data and models]] | ||
| + | * [[Models|Where to find the models]] | ||
| + | * [[Data|Where to find the data]] | ||
| + | * [[PapersEval|Papers on model evaluation]] | ||
| + | * [[Papers|Papers relating past and future]] | ||
| + | * [[Projects|Projects: proposed, underway or completed]] | ||
| + | * [[LGM_sens|LGM sensitivity subgroup]] | ||
| * [[meetings|Meetings]] | * [[meetings|Meetings]] | ||
pmip3/wg/p2f/index.txt · Last modified: 2017/02/13 14:12 by jules
