PMIP3 WG - Past to Future (P2F)

Coordinator: Julia Hargreaves

Co-coordinator: Andreas Schmittner

Jump to the LGM sensitivity subgroup.

Group description

Paleoclimate modellers have for many years argued the importance of paleoclimate simulations as a means of increasing understanding of the climate system. However, it is only in the latest iteration of the climate model inter-comparison project (CMIP5) that paleoclimate runs have been officially included. This means that, for the first time, there exists a coherent ensemble of climate models run for past climates, recent historical, control and future scenarios.

This working group seeks to help climate scientists make the best use of this unique situation, so that they may better use past climate information from models and data to learn about future climates.

The working group was initiated at the PMIP3 2012 Crewe meeting

Focus of the P2F Working group

Aims and Scope v2.1, July 2014. Compared to v2.0, the strategy has been slightly revised to include consideration of processes and explicitly include comparison with data. See below in Previous Aims and Scopes section for v2.0, June 2014, which resulted from the PMIP3 meeting, 25-30 May 2014, Namur, Belgium.

The P2F challenge

To use paleoclimate information to improve predictions of climate change

Strategy - methodology

Identify and document quantitative relationships between past and future runs and check consistency with available observations.

Identify and implement suitable methodologies to use the information to explore quantitative constraints on future climate change.

Identify whether underlying mechanisms between past and future changes are the same.

* Code for methodologies should be fully published to enable participation of others

Targets

Estimating future climate by exploring information from multiple PMIP intervals.

Exploring divergent estimates of climate sensitivity - towards reconciliation.

Predicting regional climate change - beyond climate sensitivity

* More targets? This is open to development later.

Other things

* Considerable interaction with the rest of PMIP will be required.

Model and data from all intervals needs to be publicly available.

P2F analyses focus on quantitative methodologies so will require input from process based experts

* Dan Lunt has funds to host a workshop in the UK on Past to Future, sometime in the next couple of years.

Previous Aims and Scope documents

Aims and Scope (v1.0) of the P2F working group.

Aims and Scope (v2.0) of the P2F working group, June 2014.

More

Members and mailing list

Resources

About paleoclimate models

About paleoclimate data

Methods for combining data and models

Meetings

Last Glacial Maximum Sensitivity Subgroup

The Last Glacial Maximum Sensitivity Subgroup was started recently to bring together those who are interested in the experiments which are aimed at analysing the LGM forcings separately. Members may have already have performed runs, be planning to perform runs, or be interested in analysing the runs from different groups.

The basic Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) protocol in PMIP/CMIP aims to realistically simulate the LGM. This involves changes compared to the present day in the imposed greenhouse gases, ice sheets, and orbital solar forcing. Considerable mismatch between models and data remains. This subgroup aims to consider the forcings separately in order to diagnose the effect of the different feedbacks, and to consider nonlinearities in the response to forcing that are relevant to expected future changes in the climate.

People
Members may have already have performed runs, be planning to perform runs, or be interested in analysing the runs from different groups.

Runs (CMIP3/5 models)
Includes existing available output, runs underway, and runs planned.

General Plans
Presently we aim to find what runs people have done and and interest in performing.

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