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PMIP P2F meeting PAGES, Goa, 14.02.2013

Attending:

Eric Wolff (ewwo@bas.ac.uk),
Kerim H. Nisancioglu (Kerim@uib.no),
Hugues Goosse (hugues.goosse@uclouvain.be),
Jon Harbor (jharbor@purdue.edu),
Kevin Anchukaitis (kja@whoi.edu),
Arjen Stroeven (arjen@geo.su.se),
Anders Carlson (acarlson@geology.wisc.edu),
Paul Valdes (p.j.valdes@bristol.ac.uk),
Andrew Schurer (a.schurer@ed.ac.uk),
Pascal Braconnot (Pascale.Braconnot@cea.fr)

What is the working group for?

The Past to Future (P2F) working group will focus on integrating model and proxy data from multiple time intervals as well as discussing their relevance for our understanding of future climate change.

Different from other PMIP working groups, P2F will not be centered on a specific time period: rather, the focus will be on integrating the results from multiple time intervals. The emphasis will be on existing PMIP, as well as CMIP5 experiments, when available from the same models. Additional dedicated experiments will be identified as required.

The main relevant PMIP intervals identified are: Pliocene, Eemian, Mid-Holocene as well as 2100AD. These past periods are all warm climates where there is a considerable amount of proxy data available for comparisons with the model simulations.

Key questions to address are:

How do past warm climates compare and how do they relate to a future warm greenhouse climate?

What can we learn from PMIP experiments about equilibrium climate sensitivity? Are additional dedicated experiments required?

Accessibility of data:

How can P2F contribute to improving availability of data? At a minimum the group can provide documentation of available model and proxy data sets (e.g. PRISM, PIGS etc) on a wiki.

How should the group work?

There was an agreement to organize informal meetings in conjunction with e.g. PMIP/EGU/AGU/PAGES and investigate funding if necessary on a per meeting basis.

There was also a suggestion of creating a virtual meeting space such as “Google Hangout” (Anders Carlson will investigate this option further).

For the P2F wiki to be efficient requires a dedicated moderator. A volunteer for this task is required. It would also be an advantage if an email digest could be provided on the wiki.

The second meeting of P2F should be held at the upcoming EGU conference in Vienna. To include those not present at EGU, a third P2F meeting should be organized as a virtual meeting with the larger group. A product from these two meeting will be a suggestion from P2F on focus and organization to be presented at the PMIP meeting in Belgium in 2014.

Suggestions for additional PMIP experiments:

Dedicated experiments to estimate equilibrium climate sensitivity

including consistent approach between model groups

Transient simulations including forcing from meltwater:

Eemian, Deglaciation and Holocene

Unordered List ItemInvestigating monsoons in existing climate models

integrated approach, covering several PMIP time periods

relevance for future changes in the monsoon

The above list should be prioritized, suggested order is a suggestion.

Questions raised at the meeting and to be addressed further:

Should we go beyond the next century in our comparison between past and future? I.e. consider long timescales including ice sheets, deep ocean and the carbon cycle? This is particularly important when considering equilibrium climate sensitivity. To what degree do past warm climates from different periods agree/disagree? What are the reasons for differences in climate sensitivity estimated from data versus models?

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