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pmip3:wg:p2f:methods [2013/09/11 02:35] jules [Overview of papers] |
pmip3:wg:p2f:methods [2013/09/11 04:16] jules [Overview of papers] |
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== Reducing spread in climate model projections of a September ice-free Arctic]] == | == Reducing spread in climate model projections of a September ice-free Arctic]] == | ||
- | Jiping Liu, Mirong Song, Radley M. Horton, and Yongyun Hu PNAS, 10.1073/pnas.1219716110/-/DCSupplemental, [[http://www.pnas.org/content/110/31/12571.short|website]], 2013. | + | Jiping Liu, Mirong Song, Radley M. Horton, and Yongyun Hu PNAS, 10.1073/pnas.1219716110/-/DCSupplemental, [[http://www.pnas.org/content/110/31/12571.short|paywall]], 2013. |
//keywords: CMIP, model ensemble, Arctic, Benchmark, past century// | //keywords: CMIP, model ensemble, Arctic, Benchmark, past century// | ||
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==Quantifying future climate change== | ==Quantifying future climate change== | ||
- | Collins, M., Chandler, R. E., Cox, P. M., Huthnance, J. M., Rougier, J., & Stephenson, D. B. Nature Climate Change, 2(6), 403–409. doi:10.1038/nclimate1414, [[http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n6/full/nclimate1414.html|website]], 2012. | + | Collins, M., Chandler, R. E., Cox, P. M., Huthnance, J. M., Rougier, J., & Stephenson, D. B. Nature Climate Change, 2(6), 403–409. doi:10.1038/nclimate1414, [[http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n6/full/nclimate1414.html|paywall]], 2012. |
//keywords: prospective/review, Bayesian, evaluation// | //keywords: prospective/review, Bayesian, evaluation// | ||
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''Using the PMIP2 models and a reconstruction of LGM temperatures (Annan and Hargreaves 2013), to provide a constraint on climate sensitivity. Two different methods for constraining the ensemble were compared, which relied on an apparent correlation between tropical LGM temperature anomaly, and equilibrium climate sensitivity. '' | ''Using the PMIP2 models and a reconstruction of LGM temperatures (Annan and Hargreaves 2013), to provide a constraint on climate sensitivity. Two different methods for constraining the ensemble were compared, which relied on an apparent correlation between tropical LGM temperature anomaly, and equilibrium climate sensitivity. '' | ||
- | ==Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium – Part 1: Theory== Sundberg, R., A. Moberg and A. Hind, Clim. Past, 8, 1339-1353, [[http://www.clim-past.net/8/1355/2012/cp-8-1355-2012.html|open access]], doi:10.5194/cp-8-1339-2012, 2012. and **Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium – Part 2: A pseudo-proxy study addressing the amplitude of solar forcing** A. Hind, A. Moberg, and R. Sundberg, Clim. Past, 8, 1355–1365, [[http://www.clim-past.net/8/1355/2012/, doi:10.5194/cp-8-1355-2012, 2012 |open access]] | + | ==Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium – Part 1: Theory== |
+ | Sundberg, R., A. Moberg and A. Hind, Clim. Past, 8, 1339-1353, [[http://www.clim-past.net/8/1355/2012/cp-8-1355-2012.html|open access]], doi:10.5194/cp-8-1339-2012, 2012. and **Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium – Part 2: A pseudo-proxy study addressing the amplitude of solar forcing** A. Hind, A. Moberg, and R. Sundberg, Clim. Past, 8, 1355–1365, [[http://www.clim-past.net/8/1355/2012/, doi:10.5194/cp-8-1355-2012, 2012 |open access]] | ||
//keywords : last millennium, test statistics, evaluation, detection / attribution// | //keywords : last millennium, test statistics, evaluation, detection / attribution// | ||
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==Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data== | ==Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data== | ||
- | Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Masa Kageyama, Patrick J. Bartlein, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette Otto-Bliesner & Yan Zhao, Nature Climate Change 2, 417–424, doi:10.1038/nclimate1456, 2012 | + | Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Masa Kageyama, Patrick J. Bartlein, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette Otto-Bliesner & Yan Zhao, Nature Climate Change 2, 417–424, [[http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n6/full/nclimate1456.html|paywall]], doi:10.1038/nclimate1456, 2012 |
//keywords: review/prospective, PMIP, evaluation // | //keywords: review/prospective, PMIP, evaluation // | ||
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==Sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes to climate change== | ==Sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes to climate change== | ||
- | O'Gorman, P. A., Nature Geosci, 5(10), 697–700, doi:doi:10.1038/ngeo1568, 2012. | + | O'Gorman, P. A., Nature Geosci, 5(10), 697–700, [[http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v5/n10/full/ngeo1568.html|paywall]], doi:doi:10.1038/ngeo1568, 2012. |
//keywords: model ensemble, CMIP3, modern, precipitation// | //keywords: model ensemble, CMIP3, modern, precipitation// | ||
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==Skill and reliability of climate model ensembles at the Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene== | ==Skill and reliability of climate model ensembles at the Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene== | ||
- | Clim. Past, 9, 811–823, www.clim-past.net/9/811/2013/ doi:10.5194/cp-9-811-2013, J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan1, R. Ohgaito, A. Paul, and A. Abe-Ouchi, 2013. and **Are paleoclimate model ensembles consistent with the MARGO data synthesis?** J. C. Hargreaves, A. Paul, R. Ohgaito, A. Abe-Ouchi, and J. D. Annan Clim. Past, 7, 917–933, www.clim-past.net/7/917/2011/ doi:10.5194/cp-7-917-2011, 2011 | + | J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan1, R. Ohgaito, A. Paul, and A. Abe-Ouchi, Clim. Past, 9, 811–823, [[http://www.clim-past.net/9/811/2013/|open access]] doi:10.5194/cp-9-811-20132013. and **Are paleoclimate model ensembles consistent with the MARGO data synthesis?** J. C. Hargreaves, A. Paul, R. Ohgaito, A. Abe-Ouchi, and J. D. Annan Clim. Past, 7, 917–933, [[http://www.clim-past.net/7/917/2011/|open access]] doi:10.5194/cp-7-917-2011, 2011 |
//keywords: PMIP, LGM, evaluation, ocean (SST)// | //keywords: PMIP, LGM, evaluation, ocean (SST)// | ||
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==A probabilistic calibration of climate sensitivity and terrestrial carbon change in GENIE-1== | ==A probabilistic calibration of climate sensitivity and terrestrial carbon change in GENIE-1== | ||
Philip B. Holden, N. R. Edwards, K. I. C. Oliver, T. M. Lenton & R. D. Wilkinson | Philip B. Holden, N. R. Edwards, K. I. C. Oliver, T. M. Lenton & R. D. Wilkinson | ||
- | Clim Dyn DOI 10.1007/s00382-009-0630-8, 2010. | + | Clim Dyn [[http://oro.open.ac.uk/19191/2/|free PDF at Open University repository]] or [[http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-009-0630-8#page-1|journal website]], DOI 10.1007/s00382-009-0630-8, 2010. |
//keywords: Bayesian, emulator, terrestrial carbon, LGM// | //keywords: Bayesian, emulator, terrestrial carbon, LGM// | ||
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==September sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean projected to vanish by 2100== | ==September sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean projected to vanish by 2100== | ||
- | Julien Boé, Alex Hall and Xin Qu, Nature Geoscience 2, 341, doi:10.1038/ngeo467, 2009. | + | Julien Boé, Alex Hall and Xin Qu, Nature Geoscience 2, 341, [[http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/csrl/publications/Hall/boe_et_al_2009a.pdf|free PDF at author's homepage]] or [[http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v2/n5/abs/ngeo467.html|paywall]], doi:10.1038/ngeo467, 2009. |
//keywords : model ensemble, past century, sea-ice, Arctic// | //keywords : model ensemble, past century, sea-ice, Arctic// | ||
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==Correlation between Inter-Model Similarities in Spatial Pattern for Present and Projected Future Mean Climate== | ==Correlation between Inter-Model Similarities in Spatial Pattern for Present and Projected Future Mean Climate== | ||
- | Manabu Abe, Hideo Shiogama, Julia C. Hargreaves, James D. Annan, Toru Nozawa, and Seita Emori, SOLA, Vol. 5, 133‒136, doi:10.2151/sola.2009‒034 133 1, 3, 2009. | + | Manabu Abe, Hideo Shiogama, Julia C. Hargreaves, James D. Annan, Toru Nozawa, and Seita Emori, SOLA, Vol. 5, 133‒136, [[https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/5/0/5_0_133/_article|open access]], doi:10.2151/sola.2009‒034 133 1, 3, 2009. |
//keywords: evaluation, past century, CMIP3, model ensemble // | //keywords: evaluation, past century, CMIP3, model ensemble // | ||
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==Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summer sea ice projections for the 21st century== | ==Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summer sea ice projections for the 21st century== | ||
- | H. Goosse, E. Driesschaert, T. Fichefet, and M.-F. Loutre, Clim. Past, 3, 683-692, 2007 | + | H. Goosse, E. Driesschaert, T. Fichefet, and M.-F. Loutre, Clim. Past, 3, 683-692, [[http://www.clim-past.net/3/683/2007/cp-3-683-2007.html|open access]], doi:10.5194/cp-3-683-2007, 2007 |
//keywords: parameter ensemble, Holocene, sea-ice// | //keywords: parameter ensemble, Holocene, sea-ice// | ||
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==Assessment of the use of current climate patterns to evaluate regional enhanced greenhouse response patterns of climate models== | ==Assessment of the use of current climate patterns to evaluate regional enhanced greenhouse response patterns of climate models== | ||
- | Penny Whetton, Ian Macadam, Janice Bathols, and Julian O’Grady GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L14701, doi:10.1029/2007GL030025, 2007 | + | Penny Whetton, Ian Macadam, Janice Bathols, and Julian O’Grady GRL, VOL. 34, L14701, [[http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2007GL030025/abstract|paywall]], doi:10.1029/2007GL030025, 2007 |
- | //keywords: evaluation, CMIP (need help: no access to paper)// | + | //keywords: evaluation, CMIP3, regional climate // |
''One of several papers from around 2007-2009, looking for "metrics". The idea was that if a relationship may be found in the multi-model ensemble between a measurable quantity in the present and a feature of the climate in the future projections, then this may in principle be use to constrain the ensemble. In this study the globe was split into the land-based "Giorgi regions". The metric is a measure of model similarity. Combining temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure seems to provide the best correlations for future performance both regionally and globally.'' | ''One of several papers from around 2007-2009, looking for "metrics". The idea was that if a relationship may be found in the multi-model ensemble between a measurable quantity in the present and a feature of the climate in the future projections, then this may in principle be use to constrain the ensemble. In this study the globe was split into the land-based "Giorgi regions". The metric is a measure of model similarity. Combining temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure seems to provide the best correlations for future performance both regionally and globally.'' | ||
==Does the Last Glacial Maximum constrain climate sensitivity?== | ==Does the Last Glacial Maximum constrain climate sensitivity?== | ||
- | M Crucifix, GRL, doi:10.1029/2006GL027137, 2006. | + | M Crucifix, GRL, doi:10.1029/2006GL027137, [[http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006GL027137/abstract|paywall]], 2006. |
//keywords: PMIP, climate sensitivity, (small) model ensemble// | //keywords: PMIP, climate sensitivity, (small) model ensemble// | ||
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==Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming== | ==Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming== | ||
Tamsin L. Edwards, Michel Crucifix and Sandy P. Harrison | Tamsin L. Edwards, Michel Crucifix and Sandy P. Harrison | ||
- | Progress in Physical Geography; 31; 481 DOI: 10.1177/0309133307083295. 2007. | + | Progress in Physical Geography; 31; 481 [[http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~rjsw/papers/Edwardsetal2007.pdf|free PDF at Uni of St Andrews]] or [[http://ppg.sagepub.com/content/31/5/481|paywall]], DOI: 10.1177/0309133307083295. 2007. |
//keywords: review/prospective, climate sensitivity, Bayesian// | //keywords: review/prospective, climate sensitivity, Bayesian// | ||
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==Using the current seasonal cycle to constrain snow albedo feedback in future climate change== | ==Using the current seasonal cycle to constrain snow albedo feedback in future climate change== | ||
- | Hall, A., & Qu, X. Geophysical Research Letters, 33(3), L03502. 2006 | + | Hall, A., & Qu, X. Geophysical Research Letters, 33(3), L03502, [[http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/csrl/publications/Hall/Hall_Qu_2006.pdf|free PDF at author's website]] or [[http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005GL025127/abstract|paywall]], doi:10.1029/2005GL025127, 2006 |
//keywords: Northern hemisphere, PMIP, modern, model ensemble// | //keywords: Northern hemisphere, PMIP, modern, model ensemble// | ||
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==Climate sensitivity estimated from ensemble simulations of glacial climate== | ==Climate sensitivity estimated from ensemble simulations of glacial climate== | ||
- | Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Hermann Held, Andrey Ganopolski & Stefan Rahmstorf, Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-006-0126-8, 2006 | + | Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Hermann Held, Andrey Ganopolski & Stefan Rahmstorf, Climate Dynamics, [[http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Journals/Schneider_etal_ClimDyn_2006.pdf|free PDF at author's website]] or [[http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-006-0126-8|paywall]], DOI 10.1007/s00382-006-0126-8, 2006 |
//keywords: parameter ensemble, climate sensitivity, LGM, dust// | //keywords: parameter ensemble, climate sensitivity, LGM, dust// | ||
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==Efficiently Constraining Climate Sensitivity with Ensembles of Paleoclimate Simulations== | ==Efficiently Constraining Climate Sensitivity with Ensembles of Paleoclimate Simulations== | ||
- | J. D. Annan, J. C. Hargreaves, R. Ohgaito, A. Abe-Ouchi and S. Emori, SOLA, Vol. 1, 181‒184, doi: 10.2151/sola. 2005‒047 181, 2005. | + | J. D. Annan, J. C. Hargreaves, R. Ohgaito, A. Abe-Ouchi and S. Emori, SOLA, Vol. 1, 181‒184, [[https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/1/0/1_0_181/_article|open access]], doi: 10.2151/sola. 2005‒047 181, 2005. |
//keywords: parameter ensemble, climate sensitivity, LGM, Bayesian// | //keywords: parameter ensemble, climate sensitivity, LGM, Bayesian// | ||
''In this case, estimates of tropical SST taken from the literature were used to constrain a since model ensemble with varied parameters of the MIROC GCM. This MIROC ensemble has now been shown to be of much lower dispersion than the multi-model ensemble (Hargreaves et al above, and Yokohata et al 2010). Indeed it was found impossible to produce a run with this model climate sensitivity less than 4C, while the data constraint for the LGM data suggested a lower value was entirely plausible.'' | ''In this case, estimates of tropical SST taken from the literature were used to constrain a since model ensemble with varied parameters of the MIROC GCM. This MIROC ensemble has now been shown to be of much lower dispersion than the multi-model ensemble (Hargreaves et al above, and Yokohata et al 2010). Indeed it was found impossible to produce a run with this model climate sensitivity less than 4C, while the data constraint for the LGM data suggested a lower value was entirely plausible.'' | ||
+ | |||
+ | ====Authors==== | ||
+ | Contributors to this page: | ||
+ | |||
+ | James Annan, | ||
+ | Michel Crucifix, | ||
+ | Julia Hargreaves. | ||
+ | |||
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