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--- pmip3:wg:p2f:methods [2013/09/11 04:35] – [Overview of papers] jules
+++ pmip3:wg:p2f:methods [2013/09/11 06:16] – [Overview of papers] jules
@@ Line 86: / Line 86: @@
 == Reducing spread in climate model projections of a September ice-free Arctic]] ==
-Jiping Liu, Mirong Song, Radley M. Horton, and Yongyun Hu PNAS, 10.1073/pnas.1219716110/-/DCSupplemental, [[http://www.pnas.org/content/110/31/12571.short|website]], 2013.
+Jiping Liu, Mirong Song, Radley M. Horton, and Yongyun Hu PNAS, 10.1073/pnas.1219716110/-/DCSupplemental, [[http://www.pnas.org/content/110/31/12571.short|paywall]], 2013.
 //keywords: CMIP, model ensemble, Arctic, Benchmark, past century//
@@ Line 118: / Line 118: @@
 ==Quantifying future climate change==
-Collins, M., Chandler, R. E., Cox, P. M., Huthnance, J. M., Rougier, J., & Stephenson, D. B. Nature Climate Change, 2(6), 403–409. doi:10.1038/nclimate1414, [[http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n6/full/nclimate1414.html|website]], 2012.
+Collins, M., Chandler, R. E., Cox, P. M., Huthnance, J. M., Rougier, J., & Stephenson, D. B. Nature Climate Change, 2(6), 403–409. doi:10.1038/nclimate1414, [[http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n6/full/nclimate1414.html|paywall]], 2012.
 //keywords: prospective/review, Bayesian, evaluation//
@@ Line 131: / Line 131: @@
 ''Using the PMIP2 models and a reconstruction of LGM temperatures (Annan and Hargreaves 2013), to provide a constraint on climate sensitivity. Two different methods for constraining the ensemble were compared, which relied on an apparent correlation between tropical LGM temperature anomaly, and equilibrium climate sensitivity. ''
-==Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium – Part 1: Theory== Sundberg, R., A. Moberg and A. Hind, Clim. Past, 8, 1339-1353, [[http://www.clim-past.net/8/1355/2012/cp-8-1355-2012.html|open access]], doi:10.5194/cp-8-1339-2012, 2012. and  **Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium – Part 2: A pseudo-proxy study addressing the amplitude of solar forcing** A. Hind, A. Moberg, and R. Sundberg, Clim. Past, 8, 1355–1365, [[http://www.clim-past.net/8/1355/2012/, doi:10.5194/cp-8-1355-2012, 2012 |open access]]
+==Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium – Part 1: Theory==
+Sundberg, R., A. Moberg and A. Hind, Clim. Past, 8, 1339-1353, [[http://www.clim-past.net/8/1355/2012/cp-8-1355-2012.html|open access]], doi:10.5194/cp-8-1339-2012, 2012. and  **Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium – Part 2: A pseudo-proxy study addressing the amplitude of solar forcing** A. Hind, A. Moberg, and R. Sundberg, Clim. Past, 8, 1355–1365, [[http://www.clim-past.net/8/1355/2012/, doi:10.5194/cp-8-1355-2012, 2012 |open access]]
 //keywords : last millennium, test statistics, evaluation, detection / attribution//
@@ Line 138: / Line 139: @@
 ==Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data==
-Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Masa Kageyama, Patrick J. Bartlein, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette Otto-Bliesner & Yan Zhao,   Nature Climate Change 2, 417–424, doi:10.1038/nclimate1456, 2012
+Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Masa Kageyama, Patrick J. Bartlein, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette Otto-Bliesner & Yan Zhao,   Nature Climate Change 2, 417–424, [[http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n6/full/nclimate1456.html|paywall]], doi:10.1038/nclimate1456, 2012
 //keywords: review/prospective, PMIP, evaluation //
@@ Line 145: / Line 146: @@
 ==Sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes to climate change==
-O'Gorman, P. A., Nature Geosci, 5(10), 697–700, doi:doi:10.1038/ngeo1568, 2012.
+O'Gorman, P. A., Nature Geosci, 5(10), 697–700, [[http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v5/n10/full/ngeo1568.html|paywall]], doi:doi:10.1038/ngeo1568, 2012.
 //keywords: model ensemble, CMIP3, modern, precipitation//
@@ Line 152: / Line 153: @@
 ==Skill and reliability of climate model ensembles at the Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene==
-Clim. Past, 9, 811–823, www.clim-past.net/9/811/2013/ doi:10.5194/cp-9-811-2013, J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan1, R. Ohgaito, A. Paul, and A. Abe-Ouchi, 2013. and **Are paleoclimate model ensembles consistent with the MARGO data synthesis?** J. C. Hargreaves, A. Paul, R. Ohgaito, A. Abe-Ouchi, and J. D. Annan Clim. Past, 7, 917–933, www.clim-past.net/7/917/2011/ doi:10.5194/cp-7-917-2011, 2011
+J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan1, R. Ohgaito, A. Paul, and A. Abe-Ouchi, Clim. Past, 9, 811–823, [[http://www.clim-past.net/9/811/2013/|open access]] doi:10.5194/cp-9-811-20132013. and **Are paleoclimate model ensembles consistent with the MARGO data synthesis?** J. C. Hargreaves, A. Paul, R. Ohgaito, A. Abe-Ouchi, and J. D. Annan Clim. Past, 7, 917–933, [[http://www.clim-past.net/7/917/2011/|open access]] doi:10.5194/cp-7-917-2011, 2011
 //keywords: PMIP, LGM, evaluation, ocean (SST)//
@@ Line 160: / Line 161: @@
 ==A probabilistic calibration of climate sensitivity and terrestrial carbon change in GENIE-1==
 Philip B. Holden, N. R. Edwards, K. I. C. Oliver, T. M. Lenton & R. D. Wilkinson
-Clim Dyn DOI 10.1007/s00382-009-0630-8, 2010.
+Clim Dyn [[http://oro.open.ac.uk/19191/2/|free PDF at Open University repository]] or [[http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-009-0630-8#page-1|journal website]], DOI 10.1007/s00382-009-0630-8, 2010.
 //keywords: Bayesian, emulator, terrestrial carbon, LGM//
@@ Line 167: / Line 168: @@
 ==September sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean projected to vanish by 2100==
-Julien Boé, Alex Hall and Xin Qu, Nature Geoscience 2, 341, doi:10.1038/ngeo467, 2009.
+Julien Boé, Alex Hall and Xin Qu, Nature Geoscience 2, 341, [[http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/csrl/publications/Hall/boe_et_al_2009a.pdf|free PDF at author's homepage]] or [[http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v2/n5/abs/ngeo467.html|paywall]], doi:10.1038/ngeo467, 2009.
 //keywords : model ensemble, past century, sea-ice, Arctic//
@@ Line 174: / Line 175: @@
 ==Correlation between Inter-Model Similarities in Spatial Pattern for Present and Projected Future Mean Climate==
-Manabu Abe, Hideo Shiogama, Julia C. Hargreaves, James D. Annan, Toru Nozawa, and Seita Emori, SOLA, Vol. 5, 133‒136, doi:10.2151/sola.2009‒034 133 1, 3, 2009.
+Manabu Abe, Hideo Shiogama, Julia C. Hargreaves, James D. Annan, Toru Nozawa, and Seita Emori, SOLA, Vol. 5, 133‒136, [[https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/5/0/5_0_133/_article|open access]], doi:10.2151/sola.2009‒034 133 1, 3, 2009.
 //keywords: evaluation, past century, CMIP3, model ensemble //
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 ==Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summer sea ice projections for the 21st century==
-H. Goosse, E. Driesschaert, T. Fichefet, and M.-F. Loutre,  Clim. Past, 3, 683-692, 2007
+H. Goosse, E. Driesschaert, T. Fichefet, and M.-F. Loutre,  Clim. Past, 3, 683-692, [[http://www.clim-past.net/3/683/2007/cp-3-683-2007.html|open access]], doi:10.5194/cp-3-683-2007, 2007
 //keywords: parameter ensemble, Holocene, sea-ice//
@@ Line 188: / Line 189: @@
 ==Assessment of the use of current climate patterns to evaluate regional enhanced greenhouse response patterns of climate models==
-Penny Whetton, Ian Macadam, Janice Bathols, and Julian O’Grady GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L14701, doi:10.1029/2007GL030025, 2007
+Penny Whetton, Ian Macadam, Janice Bathols, and Julian O’Grady GRL, VOL. 34, L14701, [[http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2007GL030025/abstract|paywall]], doi:10.1029/2007GL030025, 2007
-//keywords: evaluation, CMIP (need help: no access to paper)//
+//keywords: evaluation, CMIP3, regional climate //
 ''One of several papers from around 2007-2009, looking for "metrics". The idea was that if a relationship may be found in the multi-model ensemble between a measurable quantity in the present and a feature of the climate in the future projections, then this may in principle be use to constrain the ensemble. In this study the globe was split into the land-based "Giorgi regions". The metric is a measure of model similarity. Combining temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure seems to provide the best correlations for future performance both regionally and globally.''
 ==Does the Last Glacial Maximum constrain climate sensitivity?==
-M Crucifix, GRL, doi:10.1029/2006GL027137, 2006.
+M Crucifix, GRL, doi:10.1029/2006GL027137, [[http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006GL027137/abstract|paywall]], 2006.
 //keywords: PMIP, climate sensitivity, (small) model ensemble//
@@ Line 203: / Line 204: @@
 ==Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming==
 Tamsin L. Edwards, Michel Crucifix and Sandy P. Harrison
-Progress in Physical Geography; 31; 481 DOI: 10.1177/0309133307083295. 2007.
+Progress in Physical Geography; 31; 481 [[http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~rjsw/papers/Edwardsetal2007.pdf|free PDF at Uni of St Andrews]] or [[http://ppg.sagepub.com/content/31/5/481|paywall]], DOI: 10.1177/0309133307083295. 2007.
 //keywords: review/prospective, climate sensitivity, Bayesian//
@@ Line 210: / Line 211: @@
 ==Using the current seasonal cycle to constrain snow albedo feedback in future climate change==
-Hall, A., & Qu, X.  Geophysical Research Letters, 33(3), L03502. 2006
+Hall, A., & Qu, X.  Geophysical Research Letters, 33(3), L03502, [[http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/csrl/publications/Hall/Hall_Qu_2006.pdf|free PDF at author's website]] or [[http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005GL025127/abstract|paywall]], doi:10.1029/2005GL025127, 2006
 //keywords: Northern hemisphere, PMIP, modern, model ensemble//
@@ Line 218: / Line 219: @@
 ==Climate sensitivity estimated from ensemble simulations of glacial climate==
-Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Hermann Held, Andrey Ganopolski & Stefan Rahmstorf, Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-006-0126-8, 2006
+Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Hermann Held, Andrey Ganopolski & Stefan Rahmstorf, Climate Dynamics, [[http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Journals/Schneider_etal_ClimDyn_2006.pdf|free PDF at author's website]] or [[http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-006-0126-8|paywall]], DOI 10.1007/s00382-006-0126-8, 2006
 //keywords: parameter ensemble, climate sensitivity, LGM, dust//
@@ Line 226: / Line 227: @@
 ==Efficiently Constraining Climate Sensitivity with Ensembles of Paleoclimate Simulations==
-J. D. Annan, J. C. Hargreaves, R. Ohgaito, A. Abe-Ouchi and S. Emori, SOLA, Vol. 1, 181‒184, doi: 10.2151/sola. 2005‒047 181, 2005.
+J. D. Annan, J. C. Hargreaves, R. Ohgaito, A. Abe-Ouchi and S. Emori, SOLA, Vol. 1, 181‒184, [[https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/1/0/1_0_181/_article|open access]], doi: 10.2151/sola. 2005‒047 181, 2005.
 //keywords: parameter ensemble, climate sensitivity, LGM, Bayesian//
 ''In this case, estimates of tropical SST taken from the literature were used to constrain a since model ensemble with varied parameters of the MIROC GCM. This MIROC ensemble has now been shown to be of much lower dispersion than the multi-model ensemble (Hargreaves et al above, and Yokohata et al 2010). Indeed it was found impossible to produce a run with this model climate sensitivity less than 4C, while the data constraint for the LGM data suggested a lower value was entirely plausible.''
+====Authors====
+Contributors to this page:
+James Annan,
+Michel Crucifix,
+Julia Hargreaves.
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