pmip3:wg:p2f:methods
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pmip3:wg:p2f:methods [2013/09/11 02:59] jules [Overview of papers] |
pmip3:wg:p2f:methods [2013/09/11 07:00] jules [Overview of papers] |
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| ==Skill and reliability of climate model ensembles at the Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene== | ==Skill and reliability of climate model ensembles at the Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene== | ||
| - | Clim. Past, 9, 811–823, [[http://www.clim-past.net/9/811/2013/|open access]] doi:10.5194/cp-9-811-2013, J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan1, R. Ohgaito, A. Paul, and A. Abe-Ouchi, 2013. and **Are paleoclimate model ensembles consistent with the MARGO data synthesis?** J. C. Hargreaves, A. Paul, R. Ohgaito, A. Abe-Ouchi, and J. D. Annan Clim. Past, 7, 917–933, [[http://www.clim-past.net/7/917/2011/|open access]] doi:10.5194/cp-7-917-2011, 2011 | + | J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan1, R. Ohgaito, A. Paul, and A. Abe-Ouchi, Clim. Past, 9, 811–823, [[http://www.clim-past.net/9/811/2013/|open access]] doi:10.5194/cp-9-811-20132013. and **Are paleoclimate model ensembles consistent with the MARGO data synthesis?** J. C. Hargreaves, A. Paul, R. Ohgaito, A. Abe-Ouchi, and J. D. Annan Clim. Past, 7, 917–933, [[http://www.clim-past.net/7/917/2011/|open access]] doi:10.5194/cp-7-917-2011, 2011 |
| - | //keywords: PMIP, LGM, evaluation, ocean (SST)// | + | //keywords: PMIP, LGM, evaluation, temperature (SAT over land, SST for ocean)// |
| ''Show that PMIP2 and available PMIP3 models are reliable and have skill for air and surface ocean temperatures on broad scales, for the LGM. On the other hand, the MIROC single model ensemble is under-dispersive (a result common for single model ensembles - see Yokohata et al 2010). Additionally the models have no skill and are not reliable for the mid-Holocene interval. '' | ''Show that PMIP2 and available PMIP3 models are reliable and have skill for air and surface ocean temperatures on broad scales, for the LGM. On the other hand, the MIROC single model ensemble is under-dispersive (a result common for single model ensembles - see Yokohata et al 2010). Additionally the models have no skill and are not reliable for the mid-Holocene interval. '' | ||
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| ==September sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean projected to vanish by 2100== | ==September sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean projected to vanish by 2100== | ||
| - | Julien Boé, Alex Hall and Xin Qu, Nature Geoscience 2, 341, [[http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/csrl/publications/Hall/boe_et_al_2009a.pdf|free PDF at author's homepage]] or [[http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v2/n5/abs/ngeo467.html|paywall], ]doi:10.1038/ngeo467, 2009. | + | Julien Boé, Alex Hall and Xin Qu, Nature Geoscience 2, 341, [[http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/csrl/publications/Hall/boe_et_al_2009a.pdf|free PDF at author's homepage]] or [[http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v2/n5/abs/ngeo467.html|paywall]], doi:10.1038/ngeo467, 2009. |
| //keywords : model ensemble, past century, sea-ice, Arctic// | //keywords : model ensemble, past century, sea-ice, Arctic// | ||
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| ==Correlation between Inter-Model Similarities in Spatial Pattern for Present and Projected Future Mean Climate== | ==Correlation between Inter-Model Similarities in Spatial Pattern for Present and Projected Future Mean Climate== | ||
| - | Manabu Abe, Hideo Shiogama, Julia C. Hargreaves, James D. Annan, Toru Nozawa, and Seita Emori, SOLA, Vol. 5, 133‒136, [[https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/5/0/5_0_133/_article¥open access]], doi:10.2151/sola.2009‒034 133 1, 3, 2009. | + | Manabu Abe, Hideo Shiogama, Julia C. Hargreaves, James D. Annan, Toru Nozawa, and Seita Emori, SOLA, Vol. 5, 133‒136, [[https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/5/0/5_0_133/_article|open access]], doi:10.2151/sola.2009‒034 133 1, 3, 2009. |
| //keywords: evaluation, past century, CMIP3, model ensemble // | //keywords: evaluation, past century, CMIP3, model ensemble // | ||
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| ==Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summer sea ice projections for the 21st century== | ==Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summer sea ice projections for the 21st century== | ||
| - | H. Goosse, E. Driesschaert, T. Fichefet, and M.-F. Loutre, Clim. Past, 3, 683-692, 2007 | + | H. Goosse, E. Driesschaert, T. Fichefet, and M.-F. Loutre, Clim. Past, 3, 683-692, [[http://www.clim-past.net/3/683/2007/cp-3-683-2007.html|open access]], doi:10.5194/cp-3-683-2007, 2007 |
| //keywords: parameter ensemble, Holocene, sea-ice// | //keywords: parameter ensemble, Holocene, sea-ice// | ||
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| ==Assessment of the use of current climate patterns to evaluate regional enhanced greenhouse response patterns of climate models== | ==Assessment of the use of current climate patterns to evaluate regional enhanced greenhouse response patterns of climate models== | ||
| - | Penny Whetton, Ian Macadam, Janice Bathols, and Julian O’Grady GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L14701, doi:10.1029/2007GL030025, 2007 | + | Penny Whetton, Ian Macadam, Janice Bathols, and Julian O’Grady GRL, VOL. 34, L14701, [[http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2007GL030025/abstract|paywall]], doi:10.1029/2007GL030025, 2007 |
| - | //keywords: evaluation, CMIP (need help: no access to paper)// | + | //keywords: evaluation, CMIP3, regional climate // |
| ''One of several papers from around 2007-2009, looking for "metrics". The idea was that if a relationship may be found in the multi-model ensemble between a measurable quantity in the present and a feature of the climate in the future projections, then this may in principle be use to constrain the ensemble. In this study the globe was split into the land-based "Giorgi regions". The metric is a measure of model similarity. Combining temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure seems to provide the best correlations for future performance both regionally and globally.'' | ''One of several papers from around 2007-2009, looking for "metrics". The idea was that if a relationship may be found in the multi-model ensemble between a measurable quantity in the present and a feature of the climate in the future projections, then this may in principle be use to constrain the ensemble. In this study the globe was split into the land-based "Giorgi regions". The metric is a measure of model similarity. Combining temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure seems to provide the best correlations for future performance both regionally and globally.'' | ||
| ==Does the Last Glacial Maximum constrain climate sensitivity?== | ==Does the Last Glacial Maximum constrain climate sensitivity?== | ||
| - | M Crucifix, GRL, doi:10.1029/2006GL027137, 2006. | + | M Crucifix, GRL, doi:10.1029/2006GL027137, [[http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006GL027137/abstract|paywall]], 2006. |
| //keywords: PMIP, climate sensitivity, (small) model ensemble// | //keywords: PMIP, climate sensitivity, (small) model ensemble// | ||
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| ==Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming== | ==Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming== | ||
| Tamsin L. Edwards, Michel Crucifix and Sandy P. Harrison | Tamsin L. Edwards, Michel Crucifix and Sandy P. Harrison | ||
| - | Progress in Physical Geography; 31; 481 DOI: 10.1177/0309133307083295. 2007. | + | Progress in Physical Geography; 31; 481 [[http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~rjsw/papers/Edwardsetal2007.pdf|free PDF at Uni of St Andrews]] or [[http://ppg.sagepub.com/content/31/5/481|paywall]], DOI: 10.1177/0309133307083295. 2007. |
| //keywords: review/prospective, climate sensitivity, Bayesian// | //keywords: review/prospective, climate sensitivity, Bayesian// | ||
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| ==Using the current seasonal cycle to constrain snow albedo feedback in future climate change== | ==Using the current seasonal cycle to constrain snow albedo feedback in future climate change== | ||
| - | Hall, A., & Qu, X. Geophysical Research Letters, 33(3), L03502. 2006 | + | Hall, A., & Qu, X. Geophysical Research Letters, 33(3), L03502, [[http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/csrl/publications/Hall/Hall_Qu_2006.pdf|free PDF at author's website]] or [[http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005GL025127/abstract|paywall]], doi:10.1029/2005GL025127, 2006 |
| //keywords: Northern hemisphere, PMIP, modern, model ensemble// | //keywords: Northern hemisphere, PMIP, modern, model ensemble// | ||
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| ==Climate sensitivity estimated from ensemble simulations of glacial climate== | ==Climate sensitivity estimated from ensemble simulations of glacial climate== | ||
| - | Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Hermann Held, Andrey Ganopolski & Stefan Rahmstorf, Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-006-0126-8, 2006 | + | Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Hermann Held, Andrey Ganopolski & Stefan Rahmstorf, Climate Dynamics, [[http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Journals/Schneider_etal_ClimDyn_2006.pdf|free PDF at author's website]] or [[http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-006-0126-8|paywall]], DOI 10.1007/s00382-006-0126-8, 2006 |
| //keywords: parameter ensemble, climate sensitivity, LGM, dust// | //keywords: parameter ensemble, climate sensitivity, LGM, dust// | ||
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| ==Efficiently Constraining Climate Sensitivity with Ensembles of Paleoclimate Simulations== | ==Efficiently Constraining Climate Sensitivity with Ensembles of Paleoclimate Simulations== | ||
| - | J. D. Annan, J. C. Hargreaves, R. Ohgaito, A. Abe-Ouchi and S. Emori, SOLA, Vol. 1, 181‒184, doi: 10.2151/sola. 2005‒047 181, 2005. | + | J. D. Annan, J. C. Hargreaves, R. Ohgaito, A. Abe-Ouchi and S. Emori, SOLA, Vol. 1, 181‒184, [[https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/1/0/1_0_181/_article|open access]], doi: 10.2151/sola. 2005‒047 181, 2005. |
| //keywords: parameter ensemble, climate sensitivity, LGM, Bayesian// | //keywords: parameter ensemble, climate sensitivity, LGM, Bayesian// | ||
| ''In this case, estimates of tropical SST taken from the literature were used to constrain a since model ensemble with varied parameters of the MIROC GCM. This MIROC ensemble has now been shown to be of much lower dispersion than the multi-model ensemble (Hargreaves et al above, and Yokohata et al 2010). Indeed it was found impossible to produce a run with this model climate sensitivity less than 4C, while the data constraint for the LGM data suggested a lower value was entirely plausible.'' | ''In this case, estimates of tropical SST taken from the literature were used to constrain a since model ensemble with varied parameters of the MIROC GCM. This MIROC ensemble has now been shown to be of much lower dispersion than the multi-model ensemble (Hargreaves et al above, and Yokohata et al 2010). Indeed it was found impossible to produce a run with this model climate sensitivity less than 4C, while the data constraint for the LGM data suggested a lower value was entirely plausible.'' | ||
| + | |||
| + | ====Authors==== | ||
| + | Contributors to this page: | ||
| + | |||
| + | James Annan, | ||
| + | Michel Crucifix, | ||
| + | Julia Hargreaves. | ||
| + | |||
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pmip3/wg/p2f/methods.txt · Last modified: 2017/02/10 15:47 by jules
