pmip3:wg:p2f:methods
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pmip3:wg:p2f:methods [2013/09/11 04:16] jules [Overview of papers] |
pmip3:wg:p2f:methods [2013/09/11 08:26] jypeter Made some minor cosmetic changes |
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| To aid comprehension of the following overview we have defined a number of ‘keywords’ that characterise current research on P2F. | To aid comprehension of the following overview we have defined a number of ‘keywords’ that characterise current research on P2F. | ||
| - | _ ensemble : refers to an article focused to the analysis of a series of experiments. The current literature sometimes ‘ensembles of opportunity’, that is, a series of experiments that have not been designed with the idea of being analysed ‘as en ensemble’, as opposed to ensemble of experiments designed with a carefully chosen sampling scheme (latin hypercube etc. ) | + | * **Ensemble** : refers to an article focused to the analysis of a series of experiments. The current literature sometimes //ensembles of opportunity//, that is, a series of experiments that have not been designed with the idea of being analysed //as en ensemble//, as opposed to ensemble of experiments designed with a carefully chosen sampling scheme (latin hypercube etc. ) |
| - | _ Model ensemble : article making explicit use of several ‘structurally distinct’ climate simulators (as opposed to one simulator with various parameter configurations) | + | * **Model ensemble** : article making explicit use of several //structurally distinct// climate simulators (as opposed to one simulator with various parameter configurations) |
| - | _ Bayesian : refers to an article featuring an inference process based on the Bayesian paradigm, with explicit references to a prior, a likelihood and a posterior | + | * **Bayesian** : refers to an article featuring an inference process based on the Bayesian paradigm, with explicit references to a prior, a likelihood and a posterior |
| - | _ Evaluation : a fairly broad concept referring to the use of model performance indicators, either presented as quantitative metrics, or yes/no pass tests, the main idea being that models which compare well with data for past climates may be more reliable for predicting future climate change. | + | * **Evaluation** : a fairly broad concept referring to the use of model performance indicators, either presented as quantitative metrics, or yes/no pass tests, the main idea being that models which compare well with data for past climates may be more reliable for predicting future climate change. |
| - | _ Emulator : statistical technique consisting in calibrating a statistical model (generally a Gaussian process) for use as as surrogate to an actual climate simulator, in order to sample efficiently large input spaces, generally in the context of Bayesian inference or global sensitivity analysis | + | * **Emulator** : statistical technique consisting in calibrating a statistical model (generally a Gaussian process) for use as as surrogate to an actual climate simulator, in order to sample efficiently large input spaces, generally in the context of Bayesian inference or global sensitivity analysis |
| - | _ climate sensitivity : papers with attempting to contribute to the quantification off ‘climate sensitivity’ defined as change in the global average of surface air temperature in response to a doubling in CO2 concentration for pre-industrial. | + | * **Climate sensitivity** : papers with attempting to contribute to the quantification off //climate sensitivity// defined as change in the global average of surface air temperature in response to a doubling in CO2 concentration for pre-industrial. |
| - | _ review / prospective : explicit enough. | + | * **Review / prospective** : explicit enough. |
| - | _ LGM, mid-Holocene, Eocene, Past Millennia, Arctic, past century, modern : epoch tags | + | * **LGM, mid-Holocene, Eocene, Past Millennia, Arctic, past century, modern** : epoch tags |
| - | _ Europe, Global, Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere : regional tags | + | |
| - | _ Ocean, Atmosphere, Sea-ice, Monsoon, ... : climate process tag | + | |
| - | _ CMIP, PMIP : ‘Project’ tag | + | |
| - | _ detection - attribution : in the climate literature refers to the process of identifying and quantifying forcing agents based on an analysis of the spatio-temporal evolution of both model outputs and observations. A statistical model is generally explicitly defined. | + | * **Europe, Global, Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere ** : regional tags |
| + | |||
| + | * **Ocean, Atmosphere, Sea-ice, Monsoon, ...** : climate process tag | ||
| + | |||
| + | * **CMIP, PMIP** : //Project// tag | ||
| + | |||
| + | * **Detection - attribution** : in the climate literature refers to the process of identifying and quantifying forcing agents based on an analysis of the spatio-temporal evolution of both model outputs and observations. A statistical model is generally explicitly defined. | ||
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| Chronological by publication date, most recent first: | Chronological by publication date, most recent first: | ||
| - | == Reducing spread in climate model projections of a September ice-free Arctic]] == | + | == Reducing spread in climate model projections of a September ice-free Arctic == |
| Jiping Liu, Mirong Song, Radley M. Horton, and Yongyun Hu PNAS, 10.1073/pnas.1219716110/-/DCSupplemental, [[http://www.pnas.org/content/110/31/12571.short|paywall]], 2013. | Jiping Liu, Mirong Song, Radley M. Horton, and Yongyun Hu PNAS, 10.1073/pnas.1219716110/-/DCSupplemental, [[http://www.pnas.org/content/110/31/12571.short|paywall]], 2013. | ||
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| ''Using the PMIP2 models and a reconstruction of LGM temperatures (Annan and Hargreaves 2013), to provide a constraint on climate sensitivity. Two different methods for constraining the ensemble were compared, which relied on an apparent correlation between tropical LGM temperature anomaly, and equilibrium climate sensitivity. '' | ''Using the PMIP2 models and a reconstruction of LGM temperatures (Annan and Hargreaves 2013), to provide a constraint on climate sensitivity. Two different methods for constraining the ensemble were compared, which relied on an apparent correlation between tropical LGM temperature anomaly, and equilibrium climate sensitivity. '' | ||
| - | ==Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium – Part 1: Theory== | + | ==Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium == |
| - | Sundberg, R., A. Moberg and A. Hind, Clim. Past, 8, 1339-1353, [[http://www.clim-past.net/8/1355/2012/cp-8-1355-2012.html|open access]], doi:10.5194/cp-8-1339-2012, 2012. and **Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium – Part 2: A pseudo-proxy study addressing the amplitude of solar forcing** A. Hind, A. Moberg, and R. Sundberg, Clim. Past, 8, 1355–1365, [[http://www.clim-past.net/8/1355/2012/, doi:10.5194/cp-8-1355-2012, 2012 |open access]] | + | |
| + | **Part 1: Theory**, Sundberg, R., A. Moberg and A. Hind, Clim. Past, 8, 1339-1353, [[http://www.clim-past.net/8/1355/2012/cp-8-1355-2012.html|open access]], doi:10.5194/cp-8-1339-2012, 2012. | ||
| + | |||
| + | **Part 2: A pseudo-proxy study addressing the amplitude of solar forcing** A. Hind, A. Moberg, and R. Sundberg, Clim. Past, 8, 1355–1365, [[http://www.clim-past.net/8/1355/2012/, doi:10.5194/cp-8-1355-2012, 2012 |open access]] | ||
| //keywords : last millennium, test statistics, evaluation, detection / attribution// | //keywords : last millennium, test statistics, evaluation, detection / attribution// | ||
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| J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan1, R. Ohgaito, A. Paul, and A. Abe-Ouchi, Clim. Past, 9, 811–823, [[http://www.clim-past.net/9/811/2013/|open access]] doi:10.5194/cp-9-811-20132013. and **Are paleoclimate model ensembles consistent with the MARGO data synthesis?** J. C. Hargreaves, A. Paul, R. Ohgaito, A. Abe-Ouchi, and J. D. Annan Clim. Past, 7, 917–933, [[http://www.clim-past.net/7/917/2011/|open access]] doi:10.5194/cp-7-917-2011, 2011 | J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan1, R. Ohgaito, A. Paul, and A. Abe-Ouchi, Clim. Past, 9, 811–823, [[http://www.clim-past.net/9/811/2013/|open access]] doi:10.5194/cp-9-811-20132013. and **Are paleoclimate model ensembles consistent with the MARGO data synthesis?** J. C. Hargreaves, A. Paul, R. Ohgaito, A. Abe-Ouchi, and J. D. Annan Clim. Past, 7, 917–933, [[http://www.clim-past.net/7/917/2011/|open access]] doi:10.5194/cp-7-917-2011, 2011 | ||
| - | //keywords: PMIP, LGM, evaluation, ocean (SST)// | + | //keywords: PMIP, LGM, evaluation, temperature (SAT over land, SST for ocean)// |
| ''Show that PMIP2 and available PMIP3 models are reliable and have skill for air and surface ocean temperatures on broad scales, for the LGM. On the other hand, the MIROC single model ensemble is under-dispersive (a result common for single model ensembles - see Yokohata et al 2010). Additionally the models have no skill and are not reliable for the mid-Holocene interval. '' | ''Show that PMIP2 and available PMIP3 models are reliable and have skill for air and surface ocean temperatures on broad scales, for the LGM. On the other hand, the MIROC single model ensemble is under-dispersive (a result common for single model ensembles - see Yokohata et al 2010). Additionally the models have no skill and are not reliable for the mid-Holocene interval. '' | ||
pmip3/wg/p2f/methods.txt · Last modified: 2017/02/10 15:47 by jules
