pmip3:wg:p2f:methods
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pmip3:wg:p2f:methods [2013/09/11 08:26] jypeter Made some minor cosmetic changes |
pmip3:wg:p2f:methods [2013/09/24 06:42] jules [Overview of papers] |
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| ''Finds a relationship between interannual variability and change in extremes of tropical precipitation under global warming in models. Uses satellite observations to estimate the response of the tropical extremes to global warming. '' | ''Finds a relationship between interannual variability and change in extremes of tropical precipitation under global warming in models. Uses satellite observations to estimate the response of the tropical extremes to global warming. '' | ||
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| + | ==Climate Sensitivity Estimated from Temperature Reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum== | ||
| + | Schmittner, A., Urban N. M., Shakun, J. D., Mahowald, N. M., Clark, P. U., Bartlein, P. J., Mix, A. C., and Rosell-Mele, A., Science, 334, 1385-1388, doi: 10.1126/science.1203513, 2011 | ||
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| + | //keywords: single-model ensemble, LGM, Climate Sensitivity// | ||
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| + | ''Abstract:Assessing the impact of future anthropogenic carbon emissions is currently impeded by uncertainties in our knowledge of equilibrium climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. Previous studies suggest 3 kelvin (K) as the best estimate, 2 to 4.5 K as the 66% probability range, and nonzero probabilities for much higher values, the latter implying a small chance of high-impact climate changes that would be difficult to avoid. Here, combining extensive sea and land surface temperature reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model simulations, we estimate a lower median (2.3 K) and reduced uncertainty (1.7 to 2.6 K as the 66% probability range, which can be widened using alternate assumptions or data subsets). Assuming that paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future, as predicted by our model, these results imply a lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought.'' | ||
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| ==Skill and reliability of climate model ensembles at the Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene== | ==Skill and reliability of climate model ensembles at the Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene== | ||
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| ''In this case, estimates of tropical SST taken from the literature were used to constrain a since model ensemble with varied parameters of the MIROC GCM. This MIROC ensemble has now been shown to be of much lower dispersion than the multi-model ensemble (Hargreaves et al above, and Yokohata et al 2010). Indeed it was found impossible to produce a run with this model climate sensitivity less than 4C, while the data constraint for the LGM data suggested a lower value was entirely plausible.'' | ''In this case, estimates of tropical SST taken from the literature were used to constrain a since model ensemble with varied parameters of the MIROC GCM. This MIROC ensemble has now been shown to be of much lower dispersion than the multi-model ensemble (Hargreaves et al above, and Yokohata et al 2010). Indeed it was found impossible to produce a run with this model climate sensitivity less than 4C, while the data constraint for the LGM data suggested a lower value was entirely plausible.'' | ||
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| Contributors to this page: | Contributors to this page: | ||
pmip3/wg/p2f/methods.txt · Last modified: 2017/02/10 15:47 by jules
