pmip3:wg:p2f:methods
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pmip3:wg:p2f:methods [2013/09/10 07:20] jules [What should I do now?] |
pmip3:wg:p2f:methods [2015/07/30 09:23] jules |
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| More details: https://www.dokuwiki.org/plugin:discussion */ | More details: https://www.dokuwiki.org/plugin:discussion */ | ||
| ~~DISCUSSION~~ | ~~DISCUSSION~~ | ||
| - | Contact --- //[[jules@jamstec.go.jp|Julia Hargreaves]] 2013/04/26 06:53// to contribute to this page, or leave a comment in the discussion box. | + | Contact --- //[[jules@blueskiesresearch.org.uk|Julia Hargreaves]] 2013/04/26 06:53// to contribute to this page, or leave a comment in the discussion box. |
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| To aid comprehension of the following overview we have defined a number of ‘keywords’ that characterise current research on P2F. | To aid comprehension of the following overview we have defined a number of ‘keywords’ that characterise current research on P2F. | ||
| - | _ ensemble : refers to an article focused to the analysis of a series of experiments. The current literature sometimes ‘ensembles of opportunity’, that is, a series of experiments that have not been designed with the idea of being analysed ‘as en ensemble’, as opposed to ensemble of experiments designed with a carefully chosen sampling scheme (latin hypercube etc. ) | + | * **Ensemble** : refers to an article focused to the analysis of a series of experiments. The current literature sometimes //ensembles of opportunity//, that is, a series of experiments that have not been designed with the idea of being analysed //as en ensemble//, as opposed to ensemble of experiments designed with a carefully chosen sampling scheme (latin hypercube etc. ) |
| - | _ Model ensemble : article making explicit use of several ‘structurally distinct’ climate simulators (as opposed to one simulator with various parameter configurations) | + | * **Single-model ensemble**, **Multi-model ensemble** : article making explicit use of one (for single-model) or several //structurally distinct// (for multi-model) climate models (as opposed to one model with various parameter configurations) |
| - | _ Bayesian : refers to an article featuring an inference process based on the Bayesian paradigm, with explicit references to a prior, a likelihood and a posterior | + | * **Bayesian** : refers to an article featuring an inference process based on the Bayesian paradigm, with explicit references to a prior, a likelihood and a posterior |
| - | _ Evaluation : a fairly broad concept referring to the use of model performance indicators, either presented as quantitative metrics, or yes/no pass tests, the main idea being that models which compare well with data for past climates may be more reliable for predicting future climate change. | + | * **Evaluation** : a fairly broad concept referring to the use of model performance indicators, either presented as quantitative metrics, or yes/no pass tests, the main idea being that models which compare well with data for past climates may be more reliable for predicting future climate change. |
| - | _ Emulator : statistical technique consisting in calibrating a statistical model (generally a Gaussian process) for use as as surrogate to an actual climate simulator, in order to sample efficiently large input spaces, generally in the context of Bayesian inference or global sensitivity analysis | + | * **Emulator** : statistical technique consisting in calibrating a statistical model (generally a Gaussian process) for use as as surrogate to an actual climate simulator (more commonly known as "a climate model"), in order to sample efficiently large input spaces, generally in the context of Bayesian inference or global sensitivity analysis |
| - | _ climate sensitivity : papers with attempting to contribute to the quantification off ‘climate sensitivity’ defined as change in the global average of surface air temperature in response to a doubling in CO2 concentration for pre-industrial paper | + | * **Climate sensitivity** : papers with attempting to contribute to the quantification off //climate sensitivity// defined as change in the global average of surface air temperature in response to a doubling in CO2 concentration for pre-industrial. |
| - | _ review / prospective : explicit enough. | + | * **Review / prospective** : explicit enough. |
| - | _ LGM, mid-Holocene, Eocene, Past Millennia, Arctic, past century, modern : epoch tags | + | * **LGM, mid-Holocene, Eocene, Past Millennia, Arctic, past century, modern** : epoch tags |
| - | _ Europe, Global, Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere : regional tags | + | |
| - | _ Ocean, Atmosphere, Sea-ice, Monsoon, ... : climate process tag | + | |
| - | _ CMIP, PMIP : ‘Project’ tag | + | |
| - | _ detection - attribution : in the climate literature refers to the process of identifying and quantifying forcing agents based on an analysis of the spatio-temporal evolution of both model outputs and observations. A statistical model is generally explicitly defined. | + | * **Europe, Global, Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere ** : regional tags |
| + | |||
| + | * **Ocean, Atmosphere, Sea-ice, Monsoon, ...** : climate process tag | ||
| + | |||
| + | * **CMIP, PMIP** : //Project// tag | ||
| + | |||
| + | * **Detection - attribution** : in the climate literature refers to the process of identifying and quantifying forcing agents based on an analysis of the spatio-temporal evolution of both model outputs and observations. A statistical model is generally explicitly defined. | ||
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| Chronological by publication date, most recent first: | Chronological by publication date, most recent first: | ||
| - | ==Reducing spread in climate model projections of a September ice-free Arctic== | + | ==Introduction: Warm climates of the past—a lesson for the future?== |
| - | Jiping Liu, Mirong Song, Radley M. Horton, and Yongyun Hu PNAS, 2013, 10.1073/pnas.1219716110/-/DCSupplemental | + | D. J. Lunt, H. Elderfield, R. Pancost, A. Ridgwell, G. L. Foster, A. Haywood, J. Kiehl, N. Sagoo, C. Shields, E. J. Stone, and P. Valdes, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 2013 371 20130146; doi:10.1098/rsta.2013.0146 (published 16 September 2013) [[http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/371/2001/20130146.full.pdf+html|open access]] |
| + | |||
| + | ''An introduction to a special issue related to the Discussion Meeting ‘Warm climates of the past—a lesson for the future?’ compiled and edited by Daniel J. Lunt, Harry Elderfield, Richard Pancost and Andy Ridgwell. It is focussed towards emphasising the potential usefulness of the warm climates of the past. Most of the papers seem (I can't read most of them, as only a few are open access and it seems that even mighty JAMSTEC does not subscribe to Phil Trans) focussed towards understanding the past, but there is also one on climate sensitivity by J. Hansen et al, [[http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/371/2001/20120294.full.pdf+html|open access]]'' | ||
| + | |||
| + | == Reducing spread in climate model projections of a September ice-free Arctic == | ||
| + | Jiping Liu, Mirong Song, Radley M. Horton, and Yongyun Hu PNAS, 10.1073/pnas.1219716110/-/DCSupplemental, [[http://www.pnas.org/content/110/31/12571.short|paywall]], 2013. | ||
| //keywords: CMIP, model ensemble, Arctic, Benchmark, past century// | //keywords: CMIP, model ensemble, Arctic, Benchmark, past century// | ||
| Line 95: | Line 103: | ||
| ==Precipitation scaling with temperature in warm and cold climates: an analysis of CMIP5 simulations.== | ==Precipitation scaling with temperature in warm and cold climates: an analysis of CMIP5 simulations.== | ||
| - | Li, G., Harrison, S. P., Bartlein, P. J., Izumi, K., & Prentice, I. C. Geophysical Research Letters. doi:10.1002/grl.50730, 2013. | + | Li, G., Harrison, S. P., Bartlein, P. J., Izumi, K., & Prentice, I. C. Geophysical Research Letters. doi:10.1002/grl.50730, [[http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50730/full|open access]], 2013. |
| //keywords: CMIP, PMIP, model ensemble, LGM// | //keywords: CMIP, PMIP, model ensemble, LGM// | ||
| Line 103: | Line 111: | ||
| ==Using paleo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5== | ==Using paleo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5== | ||
| - | G. A. Schmidt1, J. D. Annan, P. J. Bartlein, B. I. Cook, E. Guilyardi, J. C. Hargreaves, S. P. Harrison, M. Kageyama, A. N. LeGrande, B. Konecky, S. Lovejoy, M. E. Mann, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, D. Thompson13, A. Timmermann, L.-B. Tremblay, and P. Yiou, Clim. Past Discuss., 9, 775-835, www.clim-past-discuss.net/9/775/2013/, doi:10.5194/cpd-9-775-2013, 2013 | + | G. A. Schmidt, J. D. Annan, P. J. Bartlein, B. I. Cook, E. Guilyardi, J. C. Hargreaves, S. P. Harrison, M. Kageyama, A. N. LeGrande, B. Konecky, S. Lovejoy, M. E. Mann, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, D. Thompson13, A. Timmermann, L.-B. Tremblay, and P. Yiou, Clim. Past Discuss., 9, 775-835, [[http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/9/775/2013/|open access]], doi:10.5194/cpd-9-775-2013, 2013 |
| //keywords: review/prospective, evaluation, PMIP, CMIP// | //keywords: review/prospective, evaluation, PMIP, CMIP// | ||
| Line 118: | Line 126: | ||
| ==Quantifying future climate change== | ==Quantifying future climate change== | ||
| - | Collins, M., Chandler, R. E., Cox, P. M., Huthnance, J. M., Rougier, J., & Stephenson, D. B. Nature Climate Change, 2(6), 403–409. doi:10.1038/nclimate1414, 2012. | + | Collins, M., Chandler, R. E., Cox, P. M., Huthnance, J. M., Rougier, J., & Stephenson, D. B. Nature Climate Change, 2(6), 403–409. doi:10.1038/nclimate1414, [[http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n6/full/nclimate1414.html|paywall]], 2012. |
| //keywords: prospective/review, Bayesian, evaluation// | //keywords: prospective/review, Bayesian, evaluation// | ||
| Line 125: | Line 133: | ||
| ==Can the Last Glacial Maximum constrain climate sensitivity?== | ==Can the Last Glacial Maximum constrain climate sensitivity?== | ||
| - | J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan, M. Yoshimori, and A. Abe-Ouchi, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 39, L24702, doi:10.1029/2012GL053872, 2012. | + | J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan, M. Yoshimori, and A. Abe-Ouchi, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 39, L24702, doi:10.1029/2012GL053872, [[http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL053872/full|open access]], 2012. |
| //keywords: PMIP, climate sensitiivity, model ensemble// | //keywords: PMIP, climate sensitiivity, model ensemble// | ||
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| ''Using the PMIP2 models and a reconstruction of LGM temperatures (Annan and Hargreaves 2013), to provide a constraint on climate sensitivity. Two different methods for constraining the ensemble were compared, which relied on an apparent correlation between tropical LGM temperature anomaly, and equilibrium climate sensitivity. '' | ''Using the PMIP2 models and a reconstruction of LGM temperatures (Annan and Hargreaves 2013), to provide a constraint on climate sensitivity. Two different methods for constraining the ensemble were compared, which relied on an apparent correlation between tropical LGM temperature anomaly, and equilibrium climate sensitivity. '' | ||
| - | ==Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium – Part 1: Theory== Sundberg, R., A. Moberg and A. Hind, Clim. Past, 8, 1339-1353, doi:10.5194/cp-8-1339-2012, 2012. and **Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium – Part 2: A pseudo-proxy study addressing the amplitude of solar forcing** A. Hind, A. Moberg, and R. Sundberg, Clim. Past, 8, 1355–1365, www.clim-past.net/8/1355/2012/, doi:10.5194/cp-8-1355-2012, 2012 | + | ==Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium == |
| + | |||
| + | **Part 1: Theory**, Sundberg, R., A. Moberg and A. Hind, Clim. Past, 8, 1339-1353, [[http://www.clim-past.net/8/1355/2012/cp-8-1355-2012.html|open access]], doi:10.5194/cp-8-1339-2012, 2012. | ||
| + | |||
| + | **Part 2: A pseudo-proxy study addressing the amplitude of solar forcing** A. Hind, A. Moberg, and R. Sundberg, Clim. Past, 8, 1355–1365, [[http://www.clim-past.net/8/1355/2012/, doi:10.5194/cp-8-1355-2012, 2012 |open access]] | ||
| //keywords : last millennium, test statistics, evaluation, detection / attribution// | //keywords : last millennium, test statistics, evaluation, detection / attribution// | ||
| Line 138: | Line 150: | ||
| ==Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data== | ==Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data== | ||
| - | Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Masa Kageyama, Patrick J. Bartlein, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette Otto-Bliesner & Yan Zhao, Nature Climate Change 2, 417–424, doi:10.1038/nclimate1456, 2012 | + | Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Masa Kageyama, Patrick J. Bartlein, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette Otto-Bliesner & Yan Zhao, Nature Climate Change 2, 417–424, [[http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n6/full/nclimate1456.html|paywall]], doi:10.1038/nclimate1456, 2012 |
| //keywords: review/prospective, PMIP, evaluation // | //keywords: review/prospective, PMIP, evaluation // | ||
| Line 145: | Line 157: | ||
| ==Sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes to climate change== | ==Sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes to climate change== | ||
| - | O'Gorman, P. A., Nature Geosci, 5(10), 697–700, doi:doi:10.1038/ngeo1568, 2012. | + | O'Gorman, P. A., Nature Geosci, 5(10), 697–700, [[http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v5/n10/full/ngeo1568.html|paywall]], doi:doi:10.1038/ngeo1568, 2012. |
| //keywords: model ensemble, CMIP3, modern, precipitation// | //keywords: model ensemble, CMIP3, modern, precipitation// | ||
| ''Finds a relationship between interannual variability and change in extremes of tropical precipitation under global warming in models. Uses satellite observations to estimate the response of the tropical extremes to global warming. '' | ''Finds a relationship between interannual variability and change in extremes of tropical precipitation under global warming in models. Uses satellite observations to estimate the response of the tropical extremes to global warming. '' | ||
| + | |||
| + | ==Climate Sensitivity Estimated from Temperature Reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum== | ||
| + | Schmittner, A., Urban N. M., Shakun, J. D., Mahowald, N. M., Clark, P. U., Bartlein, P. J., Mix, A. C., and Rosell-Mele, A., Science, 334, 1385-1388, [[http://www.sciencemag.org/content/334/6061/1385.abstract?keytype=ref&siteid=sci&ijkey=jI1RklqVcZeJ6|paywall]], doi: 10.1126/science.1203513, 2011 | ||
| + | |||
| + | //keywords: single-model ensemble, LGM, Climate Sensitivity// | ||
| + | |||
| + | ''Abstract:Assessing the impact of future anthropogenic carbon emissions is currently impeded by uncertainties in our knowledge of equilibrium climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. Previous studies suggest 3 kelvin (K) as the best estimate, 2 to 4.5 K as the 66% probability range, and nonzero probabilities for much higher values, the latter implying a small chance of high-impact climate changes that would be difficult to avoid. Here, combining extensive sea and land surface temperature reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model simulations, we estimate a lower median (2.3 K) and reduced uncertainty (1.7 to 2.6 K as the 66% probability range, which can be widened using alternate assumptions or data subsets). Assuming that paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future, as predicted by our model, these results imply a lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought.'' The data, but not the paper may be downlaoded for free from [[http://people.oregonstate.edu/~schmita2/#y2011|Andreas' website]]. | ||
| + | |||
| ==Skill and reliability of climate model ensembles at the Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene== | ==Skill and reliability of climate model ensembles at the Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene== | ||
| - | Clim. Past, 9, 811–823, www.clim-past.net/9/811/2013/ doi:10.5194/cp-9-811-2013, J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan1, R. Ohgaito, A. Paul, and A. Abe-Ouchi, 2013. and **Are paleoclimate model ensembles consistent with the MARGO data synthesis?** J. C. Hargreaves, A. Paul, R. Ohgaito, A. Abe-Ouchi, and J. D. Annan Clim. Past, 7, 917–933, www.clim-past.net/7/917/2011/ doi:10.5194/cp-7-917-2011, 2011 | + | J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan1, R. Ohgaito, A. Paul, and A. Abe-Ouchi, Clim. Past, 9, 811–823, [[http://www.clim-past.net/9/811/2013/|open access]] doi:10.5194/cp-9-811-20132013. and **Are paleoclimate model ensembles consistent with the MARGO data synthesis?** J. C. Hargreaves, A. Paul, R. Ohgaito, A. Abe-Ouchi, and J. D. Annan Clim. Past, 7, 917–933, [[http://www.clim-past.net/7/917/2011/|open access]] doi:10.5194/cp-7-917-2011, 2011 |
| - | //keywords: PMIP, LGM, evaluation, ocean (SST)// | + | //keywords: PMIP, LGM, evaluation, temperature (SAT over land, SST for ocean)// |
| ''Show that PMIP2 and available PMIP3 models are reliable and have skill for air and surface ocean temperatures on broad scales, for the LGM. On the other hand, the MIROC single model ensemble is under-dispersive (a result common for single model ensembles - see Yokohata et al 2010). Additionally the models have no skill and are not reliable for the mid-Holocene interval. '' | ''Show that PMIP2 and available PMIP3 models are reliable and have skill for air and surface ocean temperatures on broad scales, for the LGM. On the other hand, the MIROC single model ensemble is under-dispersive (a result common for single model ensembles - see Yokohata et al 2010). Additionally the models have no skill and are not reliable for the mid-Holocene interval. '' | ||
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| ==A probabilistic calibration of climate sensitivity and terrestrial carbon change in GENIE-1== | ==A probabilistic calibration of climate sensitivity and terrestrial carbon change in GENIE-1== | ||
| Philip B. Holden, N. R. Edwards, K. I. C. Oliver, T. M. Lenton & R. D. Wilkinson | Philip B. Holden, N. R. Edwards, K. I. C. Oliver, T. M. Lenton & R. D. Wilkinson | ||
| - | Clim Dyn DOI 10.1007/s00382-009-0630-8, 2010. | + | Clim Dyn [[http://oro.open.ac.uk/19191/2/|free PDF at Open University repository]] or [[http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-009-0630-8#page-1|journal website]], DOI 10.1007/s00382-009-0630-8, 2010. |
| //keywords: Bayesian, emulator, terrestrial carbon, LGM// | //keywords: Bayesian, emulator, terrestrial carbon, LGM// | ||
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| ==September sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean projected to vanish by 2100== | ==September sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean projected to vanish by 2100== | ||
| - | Julien Boé, Alex Hall and Xin Qu, Nature Geoscience 2, 341, doi:10.1038/ngeo467, 2009. | + | Julien Boé, Alex Hall and Xin Qu, Nature Geoscience 2, 341, [[http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/csrl/publications/Hall/boe_et_al_2009a.pdf|free PDF at author's homepage]] or [[http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v2/n5/abs/ngeo467.html|paywall]], doi:10.1038/ngeo467, 2009. |
| //keywords : model ensemble, past century, sea-ice, Arctic// | //keywords : model ensemble, past century, sea-ice, Arctic// | ||
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| ==Correlation between Inter-Model Similarities in Spatial Pattern for Present and Projected Future Mean Climate== | ==Correlation between Inter-Model Similarities in Spatial Pattern for Present and Projected Future Mean Climate== | ||
| - | Manabu Abe, Hideo Shiogama, Julia C. Hargreaves, James D. Annan, Toru Nozawa, and Seita Emori, SOLA, Vol. 5, 133‒136, doi:10.2151/sola.2009‒034 133 1, 3, 2009. | + | Manabu Abe, Hideo Shiogama, Julia C. Hargreaves, James D. Annan, Toru Nozawa, and Seita Emori, SOLA, Vol. 5, 133‒136, [[https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/5/0/5_0_133/_article|open access]], doi:10.2151/sola.2009‒034 133 1, 3, 2009. |
| //keywords: evaluation, past century, CMIP3, model ensemble // | //keywords: evaluation, past century, CMIP3, model ensemble // | ||
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| ==Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summer sea ice projections for the 21st century== | ==Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summer sea ice projections for the 21st century== | ||
| - | H. Goosse, E. Driesschaert, T. Fichefet, and M.-F. Loutre, Clim. Past, 3, 683-692, 2007 | + | H. Goosse, E. Driesschaert, T. Fichefet, and M.-F. Loutre, Clim. Past, 3, 683-692, [[http://www.clim-past.net/3/683/2007/cp-3-683-2007.html|open access]], doi:10.5194/cp-3-683-2007, 2007 |
| //keywords: parameter ensemble, Holocene, sea-ice// | //keywords: parameter ensemble, Holocene, sea-ice// | ||
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| ==Assessment of the use of current climate patterns to evaluate regional enhanced greenhouse response patterns of climate models== | ==Assessment of the use of current climate patterns to evaluate regional enhanced greenhouse response patterns of climate models== | ||
| - | Penny Whetton, Ian Macadam, Janice Bathols, and Julian O’Grady GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L14701, doi:10.1029/2007GL030025, 2007 | + | Penny Whetton, Ian Macadam, Janice Bathols, and Julian O’Grady GRL, VOL. 34, L14701, [[http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2007GL030025/abstract|paywall]], doi:10.1029/2007GL030025, 2007 |
| - | //keywords: evaluation, CMIP (need help: no access to paper)// | + | //keywords: evaluation, CMIP3, regional climate // |
| ''One of several papers from around 2007-2009, looking for "metrics". The idea was that if a relationship may be found in the multi-model ensemble between a measurable quantity in the present and a feature of the climate in the future projections, then this may in principle be use to constrain the ensemble. In this study the globe was split into the land-based "Giorgi regions". The metric is a measure of model similarity. Combining temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure seems to provide the best correlations for future performance both regionally and globally.'' | ''One of several papers from around 2007-2009, looking for "metrics". The idea was that if a relationship may be found in the multi-model ensemble between a measurable quantity in the present and a feature of the climate in the future projections, then this may in principle be use to constrain the ensemble. In this study the globe was split into the land-based "Giorgi regions". The metric is a measure of model similarity. Combining temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure seems to provide the best correlations for future performance both regionally and globally.'' | ||
| ==Does the Last Glacial Maximum constrain climate sensitivity?== | ==Does the Last Glacial Maximum constrain climate sensitivity?== | ||
| - | M Crucifix, GRL, doi:10.1029/2006GL027137, 2006. | + | M Crucifix, GRL, doi:10.1029/2006GL027137, [[http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006GL027137/abstract|paywall]], 2006. |
| //keywords: PMIP, climate sensitivity, (small) model ensemble// | //keywords: PMIP, climate sensitivity, (small) model ensemble// | ||
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| ==Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming== | ==Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming== | ||
| Tamsin L. Edwards, Michel Crucifix and Sandy P. Harrison | Tamsin L. Edwards, Michel Crucifix and Sandy P. Harrison | ||
| - | Progress in Physical Geography; 31; 481 DOI: 10.1177/0309133307083295. 2007. | + | Progress in Physical Geography; 31; 481 [[http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~rjsw/papers/Edwardsetal2007.pdf|free PDF at Uni of St Andrews]] or [[http://ppg.sagepub.com/content/31/5/481|paywall]], DOI: 10.1177/0309133307083295. 2007. |
| //keywords: review/prospective, climate sensitivity, Bayesian// | //keywords: review/prospective, climate sensitivity, Bayesian// | ||
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| ==Using the current seasonal cycle to constrain snow albedo feedback in future climate change== | ==Using the current seasonal cycle to constrain snow albedo feedback in future climate change== | ||
| - | Hall, A., & Qu, X. Geophysical Research Letters, 33(3), L03502. 2006 | + | Hall, A., & Qu, X. Geophysical Research Letters, 33(3), L03502, [[http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/csrl/publications/Hall/Hall_Qu_2006.pdf|free PDF at author's website]] or [[http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005GL025127/abstract|paywall]], doi:10.1029/2005GL025127, 2006 |
| //keywords: Northern hemisphere, PMIP, modern, model ensemble// | //keywords: Northern hemisphere, PMIP, modern, model ensemble// | ||
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| ==Climate sensitivity estimated from ensemble simulations of glacial climate== | ==Climate sensitivity estimated from ensemble simulations of glacial climate== | ||
| - | Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Hermann Held, Andrey Ganopolski & Stefan Rahmstorf, Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-006-0126-8, 2006 | + | Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Hermann Held, Andrey Ganopolski & Stefan Rahmstorf, Climate Dynamics, [[http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Journals/Schneider_etal_ClimDyn_2006.pdf|free PDF at author's website]] or [[http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-006-0126-8|paywall]], DOI 10.1007/s00382-006-0126-8, 2006 |
| //keywords: parameter ensemble, climate sensitivity, LGM, dust// | //keywords: parameter ensemble, climate sensitivity, LGM, dust// | ||
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| ==Efficiently Constraining Climate Sensitivity with Ensembles of Paleoclimate Simulations== | ==Efficiently Constraining Climate Sensitivity with Ensembles of Paleoclimate Simulations== | ||
| - | J. D. Annan, J. C. Hargreaves, R. Ohgaito, A. Abe-Ouchi and S. Emori, SOLA, Vol. 1, 181‒184, doi: 10.2151/sola. 2005‒047 181, 2005. | + | J. D. Annan, J. C. Hargreaves, R. Ohgaito, A. Abe-Ouchi and S. Emori, SOLA, Vol. 1, 181‒184, [[https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/1/0/1_0_181/_article|open access]], doi: 10.2151/sola. 2005‒047 181, 2005. |
| //keywords: parameter ensemble, climate sensitivity, LGM, Bayesian// | //keywords: parameter ensemble, climate sensitivity, LGM, Bayesian// | ||
| ''In this case, estimates of tropical SST taken from the literature were used to constrain a since model ensemble with varied parameters of the MIROC GCM. This MIROC ensemble has now been shown to be of much lower dispersion than the multi-model ensemble (Hargreaves et al above, and Yokohata et al 2010). Indeed it was found impossible to produce a run with this model climate sensitivity less than 4C, while the data constraint for the LGM data suggested a lower value was entirely plausible.'' | ''In this case, estimates of tropical SST taken from the literature were used to constrain a since model ensemble with varied parameters of the MIROC GCM. This MIROC ensemble has now been shown to be of much lower dispersion than the multi-model ensemble (Hargreaves et al above, and Yokohata et al 2010). Indeed it was found impossible to produce a run with this model climate sensitivity less than 4C, while the data constraint for the LGM data suggested a lower value was entirely plausible.'' | ||
| + | ====Authors==== | ||
| + | Contributors to this page: | ||
| + | |||
| + | James Annan, | ||
| + | Michel Crucifix, | ||
| + | Julia Hargreaves. | ||
| + | |||
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pmip3/wg/p2f/methods.txt · Last modified: 2017/02/10 15:47 by jules
