pmip3:wg:p2f:methods
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pmip3:wg:p2f:methods [2013/09/24 06:42] jules [Overview of papers] |
pmip3:wg:p2f:methods [2015/07/30 09:23] jules |
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| ~~DISCUSSION~~ | ~~DISCUSSION~~ | ||
| - | Contact --- //[[jules@jamstec.go.jp|Julia Hargreaves]] 2013/04/26 06:53// to contribute to this page, or leave a comment in the discussion box. | + | Contact --- //[[jules@blueskiesresearch.org.uk|Julia Hargreaves]] 2013/04/26 06:53// to contribute to this page, or leave a comment in the discussion box. |
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| * **Ensemble** : refers to an article focused to the analysis of a series of experiments. The current literature sometimes //ensembles of opportunity//, that is, a series of experiments that have not been designed with the idea of being analysed //as en ensemble//, as opposed to ensemble of experiments designed with a carefully chosen sampling scheme (latin hypercube etc. ) | * **Ensemble** : refers to an article focused to the analysis of a series of experiments. The current literature sometimes //ensembles of opportunity//, that is, a series of experiments that have not been designed with the idea of being analysed //as en ensemble//, as opposed to ensemble of experiments designed with a carefully chosen sampling scheme (latin hypercube etc. ) | ||
| - | * **Model ensemble** : article making explicit use of several //structurally distinct// climate simulators (as opposed to one simulator with various parameter configurations) | + | * **Single-model ensemble**, **Multi-model ensemble** : article making explicit use of one (for single-model) or several //structurally distinct// (for multi-model) climate models (as opposed to one model with various parameter configurations) |
| * **Bayesian** : refers to an article featuring an inference process based on the Bayesian paradigm, with explicit references to a prior, a likelihood and a posterior | * **Bayesian** : refers to an article featuring an inference process based on the Bayesian paradigm, with explicit references to a prior, a likelihood and a posterior | ||
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| * **Evaluation** : a fairly broad concept referring to the use of model performance indicators, either presented as quantitative metrics, or yes/no pass tests, the main idea being that models which compare well with data for past climates may be more reliable for predicting future climate change. | * **Evaluation** : a fairly broad concept referring to the use of model performance indicators, either presented as quantitative metrics, or yes/no pass tests, the main idea being that models which compare well with data for past climates may be more reliable for predicting future climate change. | ||
| - | * **Emulator** : statistical technique consisting in calibrating a statistical model (generally a Gaussian process) for use as as surrogate to an actual climate simulator, in order to sample efficiently large input spaces, generally in the context of Bayesian inference or global sensitivity analysis | + | * **Emulator** : statistical technique consisting in calibrating a statistical model (generally a Gaussian process) for use as as surrogate to an actual climate simulator (more commonly known as "a climate model"), in order to sample efficiently large input spaces, generally in the context of Bayesian inference or global sensitivity analysis |
| * **Climate sensitivity** : papers with attempting to contribute to the quantification off //climate sensitivity// defined as change in the global average of surface air temperature in response to a doubling in CO2 concentration for pre-industrial. | * **Climate sensitivity** : papers with attempting to contribute to the quantification off //climate sensitivity// defined as change in the global average of surface air temperature in response to a doubling in CO2 concentration for pre-industrial. | ||
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| Chronological by publication date, most recent first: | Chronological by publication date, most recent first: | ||
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| + | ==Introduction: Warm climates of the past—a lesson for the future?== | ||
| + | D. J. Lunt, H. Elderfield, R. Pancost, A. Ridgwell, G. L. Foster, A. Haywood, J. Kiehl, N. Sagoo, C. Shields, E. J. Stone, and P. Valdes, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 2013 371 20130146; doi:10.1098/rsta.2013.0146 (published 16 September 2013) [[http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/371/2001/20130146.full.pdf+html|open access]] | ||
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| + | ''An introduction to a special issue related to the Discussion Meeting ‘Warm climates of the past—a lesson for the future?’ compiled and edited by Daniel J. Lunt, Harry Elderfield, Richard Pancost and Andy Ridgwell. It is focussed towards emphasising the potential usefulness of the warm climates of the past. Most of the papers seem (I can't read most of them, as only a few are open access and it seems that even mighty JAMSTEC does not subscribe to Phil Trans) focussed towards understanding the past, but there is also one on climate sensitivity by J. Hansen et al, [[http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/371/2001/20120294.full.pdf+html|open access]]'' | ||
| == Reducing spread in climate model projections of a September ice-free Arctic == | == Reducing spread in climate model projections of a September ice-free Arctic == | ||
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| ==Climate Sensitivity Estimated from Temperature Reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum== | ==Climate Sensitivity Estimated from Temperature Reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum== | ||
| - | Schmittner, A., Urban N. M., Shakun, J. D., Mahowald, N. M., Clark, P. U., Bartlein, P. J., Mix, A. C., and Rosell-Mele, A., Science, 334, 1385-1388, doi: 10.1126/science.1203513, 2011 | + | Schmittner, A., Urban N. M., Shakun, J. D., Mahowald, N. M., Clark, P. U., Bartlein, P. J., Mix, A. C., and Rosell-Mele, A., Science, 334, 1385-1388, [[http://www.sciencemag.org/content/334/6061/1385.abstract?keytype=ref&siteid=sci&ijkey=jI1RklqVcZeJ6|paywall]], doi: 10.1126/science.1203513, 2011 |
| //keywords: single-model ensemble, LGM, Climate Sensitivity// | //keywords: single-model ensemble, LGM, Climate Sensitivity// | ||
| - | ''Abstract:Assessing the impact of future anthropogenic carbon emissions is currently impeded by uncertainties in our knowledge of equilibrium climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. Previous studies suggest 3 kelvin (K) as the best estimate, 2 to 4.5 K as the 66% probability range, and nonzero probabilities for much higher values, the latter implying a small chance of high-impact climate changes that would be difficult to avoid. Here, combining extensive sea and land surface temperature reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model simulations, we estimate a lower median (2.3 K) and reduced uncertainty (1.7 to 2.6 K as the 66% probability range, which can be widened using alternate assumptions or data subsets). Assuming that paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future, as predicted by our model, these results imply a lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought.'' | + | ''Abstract:Assessing the impact of future anthropogenic carbon emissions is currently impeded by uncertainties in our knowledge of equilibrium climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. Previous studies suggest 3 kelvin (K) as the best estimate, 2 to 4.5 K as the 66% probability range, and nonzero probabilities for much higher values, the latter implying a small chance of high-impact climate changes that would be difficult to avoid. Here, combining extensive sea and land surface temperature reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model simulations, we estimate a lower median (2.3 K) and reduced uncertainty (1.7 to 2.6 K as the 66% probability range, which can be widened using alternate assumptions or data subsets). Assuming that paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future, as predicted by our model, these results imply a lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought.'' The data, but not the paper may be downlaoded for free from [[http://people.oregonstate.edu/~schmita2/#y2011|Andreas' website]]. |
pmip3/wg/p2f/methods.txt · Last modified: 2017/02/10 15:47 by jules
