pmip3:wg:p2f:methods
Differences
This shows you the differences between two versions of the page.
| Both sides previous revision Previous revision Next revision | Previous revision Last revision Both sides next revision | ||
|
pmip3:wg:p2f:methods [2013/09/24 06:45] jules [Keywords] |
pmip3:wg:p2f:methods [2015/07/30 09:23] jules |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| Line 2: | Line 2: | ||
| More details: https://www.dokuwiki.org/plugin:discussion */ | More details: https://www.dokuwiki.org/plugin:discussion */ | ||
| ~~DISCUSSION~~ | ~~DISCUSSION~~ | ||
| - | Contact --- //[[jules@jamstec.go.jp|Julia Hargreaves]] 2013/04/26 06:53// to contribute to this page, or leave a comment in the discussion box. | + | Contact --- //[[jules@blueskiesresearch.org.uk|Julia Hargreaves]] 2013/04/26 06:53// to contribute to this page, or leave a comment in the discussion box. |
| /* This is a comment | /* This is a comment | ||
| Line 87: | Line 87: | ||
| Chronological by publication date, most recent first: | Chronological by publication date, most recent first: | ||
| + | |||
| + | ==Introduction: Warm climates of the past—a lesson for the future?== | ||
| + | D. J. Lunt, H. Elderfield, R. Pancost, A. Ridgwell, G. L. Foster, A. Haywood, J. Kiehl, N. Sagoo, C. Shields, E. J. Stone, and P. Valdes, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 2013 371 20130146; doi:10.1098/rsta.2013.0146 (published 16 September 2013) [[http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/371/2001/20130146.full.pdf+html|open access]] | ||
| + | |||
| + | ''An introduction to a special issue related to the Discussion Meeting ‘Warm climates of the past—a lesson for the future?’ compiled and edited by Daniel J. Lunt, Harry Elderfield, Richard Pancost and Andy Ridgwell. It is focussed towards emphasising the potential usefulness of the warm climates of the past. Most of the papers seem (I can't read most of them, as only a few are open access and it seems that even mighty JAMSTEC does not subscribe to Phil Trans) focussed towards understanding the past, but there is also one on climate sensitivity by J. Hansen et al, [[http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/371/2001/20120294.full.pdf+html|open access]]'' | ||
| == Reducing spread in climate model projections of a September ice-free Arctic == | == Reducing spread in climate model projections of a September ice-free Arctic == | ||
| Line 159: | Line 164: | ||
| ==Climate Sensitivity Estimated from Temperature Reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum== | ==Climate Sensitivity Estimated from Temperature Reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum== | ||
| - | Schmittner, A., Urban N. M., Shakun, J. D., Mahowald, N. M., Clark, P. U., Bartlein, P. J., Mix, A. C., and Rosell-Mele, A., Science, 334, 1385-1388, doi: 10.1126/science.1203513, 2011 | + | Schmittner, A., Urban N. M., Shakun, J. D., Mahowald, N. M., Clark, P. U., Bartlein, P. J., Mix, A. C., and Rosell-Mele, A., Science, 334, 1385-1388, [[http://www.sciencemag.org/content/334/6061/1385.abstract?keytype=ref&siteid=sci&ijkey=jI1RklqVcZeJ6|paywall]], doi: 10.1126/science.1203513, 2011 |
| //keywords: single-model ensemble, LGM, Climate Sensitivity// | //keywords: single-model ensemble, LGM, Climate Sensitivity// | ||
| - | ''Abstract:Assessing the impact of future anthropogenic carbon emissions is currently impeded by uncertainties in our knowledge of equilibrium climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. Previous studies suggest 3 kelvin (K) as the best estimate, 2 to 4.5 K as the 66% probability range, and nonzero probabilities for much higher values, the latter implying a small chance of high-impact climate changes that would be difficult to avoid. Here, combining extensive sea and land surface temperature reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model simulations, we estimate a lower median (2.3 K) and reduced uncertainty (1.7 to 2.6 K as the 66% probability range, which can be widened using alternate assumptions or data subsets). Assuming that paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future, as predicted by our model, these results imply a lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought.'' | + | ''Abstract:Assessing the impact of future anthropogenic carbon emissions is currently impeded by uncertainties in our knowledge of equilibrium climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. Previous studies suggest 3 kelvin (K) as the best estimate, 2 to 4.5 K as the 66% probability range, and nonzero probabilities for much higher values, the latter implying a small chance of high-impact climate changes that would be difficult to avoid. Here, combining extensive sea and land surface temperature reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model simulations, we estimate a lower median (2.3 K) and reduced uncertainty (1.7 to 2.6 K as the 66% probability range, which can be widened using alternate assumptions or data subsets). Assuming that paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future, as predicted by our model, these results imply a lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought.'' The data, but not the paper may be downlaoded for free from [[http://people.oregonstate.edu/~schmita2/#y2011|Andreas' website]]. |
pmip3/wg/p2f/methods.txt · Last modified: 2017/02/10 15:47 by jules
