pmip3:wg:p2f:papers
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pmip3:wg:p2f:papers [2017/02/13 17:28] jules [Last glacial maximum constraints on the Earth System model HadGEM2-ES] |
pmip3:wg:p2f:papers [2017/02/13 17:34] jules [Tropical cyclone genesis potential across palaeoclimates] |
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| ==== Tropical cyclone genesis potential across palaeoclimates ==== | ==== Tropical cyclone genesis potential across palaeoclimates ==== | ||
| - | Koh, J. H. and Brierley, C. M., Clim. Past, 11, 1433-1451, doi:10.5194/cp-11-1433-2015, 2015. http://www.clim-past.net/11/1433/2015/ | + | Koh, J. H. and Brierley, C. M., Clim. Past, 11, 1433-1451, doi:10.5194/cp-11-1433-2015, 2015. http://www.clim-past.net/11/1433/2015/ (open access) |
| ''The favourability of the mid-Pliocene, Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene for tropical cyclone formation is investigated in five climate models. During the mid-Pliocene and LGM, changes in carbon dioxide led to sea surface temperature changes throughout the tropics, yet the potential intensity is calculated to be relatively insensitive to these changes. Changes in tropical cyclone genesis potential during the mid-Holocene are found to be asymmetric about the Equator: being reduced in the Northern Hemisphere but enhanced in the Southern Hemisphere. This is clearly driven by the altered seasonal insolation. Nonetheless, the enhanced seasonality drove localised changes in genesis potential, by altering the strength of monsoons and shifting the intertropical convergence zone. Trends in future tropical cyclone genesis potential are consistent neither between the five models studied nor with the palaeoclimate results. It is not clear why this should be the case.'' | ''The favourability of the mid-Pliocene, Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene for tropical cyclone formation is investigated in five climate models. During the mid-Pliocene and LGM, changes in carbon dioxide led to sea surface temperature changes throughout the tropics, yet the potential intensity is calculated to be relatively insensitive to these changes. Changes in tropical cyclone genesis potential during the mid-Holocene are found to be asymmetric about the Equator: being reduced in the Northern Hemisphere but enhanced in the Southern Hemisphere. This is clearly driven by the altered seasonal insolation. Nonetheless, the enhanced seasonality drove localised changes in genesis potential, by altering the strength of monsoons and shifting the intertropical convergence zone. Trends in future tropical cyclone genesis potential are consistent neither between the five models studied nor with the palaeoclimate results. It is not clear why this should be the case.'' | ||
pmip3/wg/p2f/papers.txt · Last modified: 2017/06/07 09:08 by jules
