pmip3:wg:p2f:papers
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pmip3:wg:p2f:papers [2017/02/13 17:28] jules [Last glacial maximum constraints on the Earth System model HadGEM2-ES] |
pmip3:wg:p2f:papers [2017/06/07 09:08] (current) jules [Future climate forcing potentially without precedent in the last 420 million years] |
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| + | ==== Future climate forcing potentially without precedent in the last 420 million years ==== | ||
| + | Foster, G. L., Royer, D. L., & Lunt, D. J., (2017). Future climate forcing potentially without precedent in the last 420 million years. Nature Communications, 8, 1–8. http://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14845 | ||
| + | https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14845 | ||
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| + | Abstract: ''The evolution of Earth’s climate on geological timescales is largely driven by variations in the magnitude of total solar irradiance (TSI) and changes in the greenhouse gas content of the atmosphere. Here we show that the slow B50 Wm 2 increase in TSI over the last B420 million years (an increase of B9 Wm 2 of radiative forcing) was almost completely negated by a long-term decline in atmospheric CO2. This was likely due to the silicate weathering- negative feedback and the expansion of land plants that together ensured Earth’s long-term habitability. Humanity’s fossil-fuel use, if unabated, risks taking us, by the middle of the twenty-first century, to values of CO2 not seen since the early Eocene (50 million years ago). If CO2 continues to rise further into the twenty-third century, then the associated large increase in radiative forcing, and how the Earth system would respond, would likely be without geological precedent in the last half a billion years.'' | ||
| ==== The University of Victoria Cloud Feedback Emulator (UVic-CFE): cloud radiative feedbacks in an intermediate complexity model ==== | ==== The University of Victoria Cloud Feedback Emulator (UVic-CFE): cloud radiative feedbacks in an intermediate complexity model ==== | ||
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| ==== Tropical cyclone genesis potential across palaeoclimates ==== | ==== Tropical cyclone genesis potential across palaeoclimates ==== | ||
| - | Koh, J. H. and Brierley, C. M., Clim. Past, 11, 1433-1451, doi:10.5194/cp-11-1433-2015, 2015. http://www.clim-past.net/11/1433/2015/ | + | Koh, J. H. and Brierley, C. M., Clim. Past, 11, 1433-1451, doi:10.5194/cp-11-1433-2015, 2015. http://www.clim-past.net/11/1433/2015/ (open access) |
| ''The favourability of the mid-Pliocene, Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene for tropical cyclone formation is investigated in five climate models. During the mid-Pliocene and LGM, changes in carbon dioxide led to sea surface temperature changes throughout the tropics, yet the potential intensity is calculated to be relatively insensitive to these changes. Changes in tropical cyclone genesis potential during the mid-Holocene are found to be asymmetric about the Equator: being reduced in the Northern Hemisphere but enhanced in the Southern Hemisphere. This is clearly driven by the altered seasonal insolation. Nonetheless, the enhanced seasonality drove localised changes in genesis potential, by altering the strength of monsoons and shifting the intertropical convergence zone. Trends in future tropical cyclone genesis potential are consistent neither between the five models studied nor with the palaeoclimate results. It is not clear why this should be the case.'' | ''The favourability of the mid-Pliocene, Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene for tropical cyclone formation is investigated in five climate models. During the mid-Pliocene and LGM, changes in carbon dioxide led to sea surface temperature changes throughout the tropics, yet the potential intensity is calculated to be relatively insensitive to these changes. Changes in tropical cyclone genesis potential during the mid-Holocene are found to be asymmetric about the Equator: being reduced in the Northern Hemisphere but enhanced in the Southern Hemisphere. This is clearly driven by the altered seasonal insolation. Nonetheless, the enhanced seasonality drove localised changes in genesis potential, by altering the strength of monsoons and shifting the intertropical convergence zone. Trends in future tropical cyclone genesis potential are consistent neither between the five models studied nor with the palaeoclimate results. It is not clear why this should be the case.'' | ||
pmip3/wg/p2f/papers.1487006919.txt.gz · Last modified: 2017/02/13 17:28 by jules
