pmip3:wg:p2f:paperseval
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pmip3:wg:p2f:paperseval [2017/02/13 14:26] jules |
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| ~~DISCUSSION~~ | ~~DISCUSSION~~ | ||
| - | ====== Overview of papers ====== | + | ====== Some papers related to evaluating PMIP models ====== |
| Chronological by publication date, most recent first: | Chronological by publication date, most recent first: | ||
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| - | New additions - details to be added... | ||
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| ==== The University of Victoria Cloud Feedback Emulator (UVic-CFE): cloud radiative feedbacks in an intermediate complexity model ==== | ==== The University of Victoria Cloud Feedback Emulator (UVic-CFE): cloud radiative feedbacks in an intermediate complexity model ==== | ||
| In review at GMD, doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-220 | In review at GMD, doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-220 | ||
| + | http://www.geosci-model-dev-discuss.net/gmd-2016-220/ | ||
| - | http://www.geosci-model-dev-discuss.net/gmd-2016-220/ | ||
| from the abstract: ''Here, we describe and evaluate a method for applying GCM-derived shortwave and longwave cloud feedbacks from 4xCO2 and Last Glacial Maximum experiments to the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model. The method generally captures the spread in top-of-the-atmosphere radiative feedbacks between the original GCMs, which impacts the magnitude and spatial distribution of surface temperature changes and climate sensitivity. These results suggest that the method is suitable to incorporate multi-model cloud feedback uncertainties in ensemble simulations with a single intermediate complexity model.'' | from the abstract: ''Here, we describe and evaluate a method for applying GCM-derived shortwave and longwave cloud feedbacks from 4xCO2 and Last Glacial Maximum experiments to the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model. The method generally captures the spread in top-of-the-atmosphere radiative feedbacks between the original GCMs, which impacts the magnitude and spatial distribution of surface temperature changes and climate sensitivity. These results suggest that the method is suitable to incorporate multi-model cloud feedback uncertainties in ensemble simulations with a single intermediate complexity model.'' | ||
| ==== Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming ==== | ==== Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming ==== | ||
| - | Tobias Friedrich, Axel Timmermann, Michelle Tigchelaar, Oliver Elison Timm and Andrey Ganopolski | + | Tobias Friedrich, Axel Timmermann, Michelle Tigchelaar, Oliver Elison Timm and Andrey Ganopolski, Science Advances 09 Nov 2016, Vol. 2, no. 11, e1501923, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1501923 http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/2/11/e1501923.full |
| - | Science Advances 09 Nov 2016, Vol. 2, no. 11, e1501923, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1501923 | + | |
| - | http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/2/11/e1501923.full | + | |
| abstract: Global mean surface temperatures are rising in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The magnitude of this warming at equilibrium for a given radiative forcing—referred to as specific equilibrium climate sensitivity (S)—is still subject to uncertainties. We estimate global mean temperature variations and S using a 784,000-year-long field reconstruction of sea surface temperatures and a transient paleoclimate model simulation. Our results reveal that S is strongly dependent on the climate background state, with significantly larger values attained during warm phases. Using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for future greenhouse radiative forcing, we find that the range of paleo-based estimates of Earth’s future warming by 2100 CE overlaps with the upper range of climate simulations conducted as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Furthermore, we find that within the 21st century, global mean temperatures will very likely exceed maximum levels reconstructed for the last 784,000 years. On the basis of temperature data from eight glacial cycles, our results provide an independent validation of the magnitude of current CMIP5 warming projections. | abstract: Global mean surface temperatures are rising in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The magnitude of this warming at equilibrium for a given radiative forcing—referred to as specific equilibrium climate sensitivity (S)—is still subject to uncertainties. We estimate global mean temperature variations and S using a 784,000-year-long field reconstruction of sea surface temperatures and a transient paleoclimate model simulation. Our results reveal that S is strongly dependent on the climate background state, with significantly larger values attained during warm phases. Using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for future greenhouse radiative forcing, we find that the range of paleo-based estimates of Earth’s future warming by 2100 CE overlaps with the upper range of climate simulations conducted as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Furthermore, we find that within the 21st century, global mean temperatures will very likely exceed maximum levels reconstructed for the last 784,000 years. On the basis of temperature data from eight glacial cycles, our results provide an independent validation of the magnitude of current CMIP5 warming projections. | ||
| ==== Could the Pliocene constrain the equilibrium climate sensitivity? ==== | ==== Could the Pliocene constrain the equilibrium climate sensitivity? ==== | ||
| - | J. C. Hargreaves and J. D. Annan | + | J. C. Hargreaves and J. D. Annan, Clim. Past, 12, 1591-1599, 2016 |
| - | Clim. Past, 12, 1591-1599, 2016 | + | doi:10.5194/cp-12-1591-2016, http://www.clim-past.net/12/1591/2016/ |
| - | doi:10.5194/cp-12-1591-2016 | + | |
| - | http://www.clim-past.net/12/1591/2016/ | + | |
| Short summary ''The mid-Pliocene Warm Period, 3 million years ago, was the most recent interval with high greenhouse gases. By modelling the period with the same models used for future projections, we can link the past and future climates. Here we use data from the mid-Pliocene to produce a tentative result for equilibrium climate sensitivity. We show that there are considerable uncertainties that strongly influence the result, but we are optimistic that these may be reduced in the next few years.'' | Short summary ''The mid-Pliocene Warm Period, 3 million years ago, was the most recent interval with high greenhouse gases. By modelling the period with the same models used for future projections, we can link the past and future climates. Here we use data from the mid-Pliocene to produce a tentative result for equilibrium climate sensitivity. We show that there are considerable uncertainties that strongly influence the result, but we are optimistic that these may be reduced in the next few years.'' | ||
| ==== Terrestrial biosphere changes over the last 120 kyr and their impact on ocean δ 13C. ==== | ==== Terrestrial biosphere changes over the last 120 kyr and their impact on ocean δ 13C. ==== | ||
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| Hoogakker BAA, Smith RS, Singarayer JS, Marchant R, Prentice IC, Allen | Hoogakker BAA, Smith RS, Singarayer JS, Marchant R, Prentice IC, Allen | ||
| J, Anderson RS, Bhagwat SA, Behling H, Borisova O, and Bush M, et al. | J, Anderson RS, Bhagwat SA, Behling H, Borisova O, and Bush M, et al. | ||
pmip3/wg/p2f/paperseval.txt · Last modified: 2017/02/13 17:09 by jules
