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Focus of the P2F Working group

Aims and Scope v2.0, June 2014, resulting from the PMIP3 meeting, 25-30 May 2014, Namur, Belgium.

The P2F challenge

To use paleoclimate information to improve predictions of climate change

Strategy - methodology

  1. Identify and document quantitative relationships between past and future runs and check consistency with available observations.
  2. Identify and implement suitable methodologies to use the information to explore quantitative constraints on future climate change.
  3. Identify whether underlying mechanisms between past and future changes are the same.

* Code for methodologies should be fully published to enable participation of others


  1. Estimating future climate by exploring information from multiple PMIP intervals.
  2. Exploring divergent estimates of climate sensitivity - towards reconciliation.
  3. Predicting regional climate change - beyond climate sensitivity

* More targets? This is open to development later.

Other things

* Considerable interaction with the rest of PMIP will be required.

  • Model and data from all intervals needs to be publicly available.
  • P2F analyses focus on quantitative methodologies so will require input from process based experts

* Dan Lunt has funds to host a workshop in the UK on Past to Future, sometime in the next couple of years.

pmip3/wg/p2f/aims_and_scope_v2.0.txt · Last modified: 2014/07/21 12:48 by jules