This page is intended as a space to share thoughts about the methodology of variability comparisons
It will slowly be populated by examples of good and bad practice with some informed (and hopefully) referenced comments about them
Please contribute your own assessment of relevant paper.
Either add your thoughts as a discussion below or email them to Chris directly
Hill et al. (2011)
By Chris Brierley
Reference: Hill, D. J., A. Z. Csank, A. M. Dolan, and D. J. Lunt (2011), Pliocene climate variability: Northern Annular Mode in models and tree-ring data, Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 309(1-2), 118–127, doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2011.04.003.
Summary: This paper analyses a series of HadCM3 Pliocene simulations with different boundary conditions. The impact on these on the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations is investigated. Then spectral analysis of tree ring records from a site in the high Arctic are compared with modern Spectra for the NAO and AO. They argue for high Rocky Mountains in Pliocene on back of this spectral analysis.
Novelty: First attempt at Data-Model Comparison on NAO variability for Pre-Pleistocene. Use comparison to infer something about boundary conditions.
Potential for Improvement: Model and Data components could be better intertwined. Spectral analysis could be more sophisticated.
Table of Modes
The table below is aimed at collating together some information about various climate modes are changing with time. For each box, there is a reference given: they are not intended to be exhaustive, but rather an starting-point for your own literature search.
I aim to color each reference
* Blue means a reduction in variability
* red means an increase in variability
* green means no change was observed
* amber/orange means insufficient data existed, or the results were equivocal.
| || Definition || Future Change || past1000 || midHolocene || lgm || Last Interglacial || Pliocene
| ENSO|| Trenberth || Collins; Power; || ? || Emile-Geay || ? || ? || Brierley (2015)
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