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Past to Future - Meetings

Upcoming meetings

Dan Lunt has promised to fund a 2 day workshop in the next couple of years. One day on the Past to Future topic.

Past meetings

Joint Assembly, Montreal, 2015

Place, date, etc...

Montreal, Canada, 4-7 May 2015

PP32A: Using Paleoclimate Modeling and Data to Constrain Future Predictions Conveners: Gavin A. Schmidt, Bruno Tremblay, Julia C. Hargreaves


Gavin A. Schmidt Richard Zeebe Richard P. Guyette Aixue Hu Mark Chandler Allegra LeGrande Bruno Tremblay Shaun Lovejoy

P2F activity

Discussions and post-session lunch.

EGU 2015, Vienna

Original Session CL4.9, “Using paleoclimate modelling and data to learn about the future” conveners Julia Hargreaves, Michel Crucifix, Gavin Schmidt, merged with CL1.8 to become: “Paleoclimates from the Cretaceous to the Holocene: learning from numerical experiments and model-data comparisons, and using paleoclimate modelling and data to learn about the future”, conveners: Masa Kageyama, André Paul, Dan Lunt, Michal Kucera, Julia Hargreaves, Michel Crucifix, Gavin A. Schmidt. With 10 abstracts from CL4.9, three were oral presentations, and the rest were presented as posters.

Place, date, etc...

Vienna, Austria,
Wed, 15 Apr, 10:30–12:00 / 13:30–17:00 / Room Y9, 17:30
Wed, 15 Apr, 17:30–19:00 / Yellow Posters

Participants (from original CL4.9 session)

Invited orals:
Paleoclimate diagnostics: consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates. Kenji Izumi et al.
Sensitivity of Southern Hemisphere circulation to LGM and 4xCO2 climates. Maisa Rojas
Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation from 850-2100 CE. Flavio Lehner et al.
Is the PMIP ensemble large enough? Julia C. Hargreaves and James D. Annan
Climate response to astronomical forcing: a resonance scenario vs. a synchronization scenario. Arianna Marchionne
Dominant role of atmospheric dynamics for North Pacific Holocene SST trends: Validating models. Gerrit Lohmann et al.
Late Quaternary and Future Biome Simulations for Alaska and Eastern Russia. Amy Hendricks et al.
Relationship between El Niño and the hydrological cycle of tropical regions in different climatic contexts. Marion Saint-Lu et al.
Paleodynamics of large closed lakes as a standard for climate modeling data verification. Alexander Kislov
Reconstruction of the South Atlantic Dipole Index. Ilana Wainer et al.

P2F relevant sessions

There was another P2F relevent session, CL4.12/HS7.9, The hydrological cycle under past, present and future climate change (co-organized) Conveners: Michael Byrne, Robin Chadwick, Florent Brient, Charline Marzin. Included an invited talk by Pascale Braconnot, “Hydrological changes in the tropics: an Holocene perspective”, which included quite a strong P2F perspective. But all the other talks in the session were on present climate. The poster session included, “Robust relationships in past and future simulation: atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycle over the tropics Kenji Izumi et al” and “Early Eocene changes in the frequency and spatial distribution of extreme precipitation events Matthew Carmichael et al”

PMIP3, Namur Belgium, 2014

Place, date, etc...

Namur, Belgium, 23-30 May 2014 The second PMIP3 general meeting

Everything about PMIP3. Mostly multi-model science results and workshop reports and planning sessions.


These two links include most of the attendees Talks: Posters:

P2F activity

Talks by Julia Hargreaves, Gavin Schmidt and Steve Sherwood. Thursday lunchtime planning meeting with Julia Hargreaves, Michel Crucifix, Masa Kageyama, Dan Lunt, Gavin Schmidt and Steve Sherwood with aim of forming a clear focus for the group. Produced version 2.0 of the Aims and Scope.

DIMACS, Rutgers USA, 2013

Place, date, etc...

Rutgers, NJ, USA, January 17-18, 2013 DIMACS workshop on “Geological data fusion: Tackling the statistical challenges of interpreting past environmental change”

Basically, it was all about paleoclimate and statistics, but a bit about future climate too.


Julia Hargreaves, Gavin Schmidt, Kevin Anchukaitis

P2F activity

Gavin agreed that it would be nice to write down what we think each interval in the past that we model might be able to tell us about future climate. In fact he seemed to offer to put up a skeleton outline, based on a paper he wrote a while back! This will go on the “What We Know” page.

PAGES, Goa, 2013

Place, date, etc...

Goa, India, 13-16 February, 2013


  • drink some tea (or whatever)
  • exchange ideas about what the working group might get up to in the future

Expected Participants

Pascale Braconnot, Eric Wolff, Anders Carlson, Andre Berger, Quizhen Yin, Andrew Schurer

P2F activity

A lunchtime meeting was held in the sun. Some things were discussed. The minutes are here.

EGU, Vienna, 2013

Place, date, etc...

Vienna, Austria, 7-12 April 2013


Using paleoclimate modelling and data to learn about the future Conveners: Julia C. Hargreaves, Michel Crucifix, Gavin A. Schmidt

Expected Participants

Julia Hargreaves, Masa Kageyama, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt

P2F activity

A half hour meeting with about 20 attendees was held in Y9 on Monday lunchtime. Minutes of the meeting

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Past to Future guest account, 2013/01/23 07:09

PAGES OSM 2013, session OSM03 New Approaches to Data Assimilation and Data-Model Comparison

Skill and reliability of climate model ensembles at the Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene. Julia Hargreaves, James Annan, Rumi Ohgaito, Andre Paul, Ayako Abe-Ouchi

Past to Future guest account, 2013/01/23 10:09

Julia, I have no idea if this is what you want me to do, but I will be at Goa so should be able to attend any meeting you set up. Eric Wolff.

Past to Future guest account, 2013/01/23 16:33

I have session OSM 07 on Thursday in the afternoon - - entitled 'Sensitivity of the cryosphere: past and future'

I think such a meeting is a great idea to discuss what we can glean from a given time period (my talk in the session is on this wrt ice sheets in the past).


Past to Future guest account, 2013/01/23 17:06

Sorry to miss the PAGES meeting and the session at EGU. In the midst of teaching! Let me know if sessions will be recorded or if there is a meeting of the working group, if it is possible to telecon/videocon in. -Aradhna

Past to Future guest account,, 2013/01/28 08:48

I will be at EGU but not at the PAGES meeting in Inda. –Michel.

Past to Future guest account,, 2013/01/29 07:52

I will be in GOA and deliver a lecture with Yin and Herold in OSM13 on The difficulty to find analogues for the future climate. Let us know what you plan.

Qiuzhen Yin, 2013/01/31 18:09

I will be in GOA if I get my passport back from Indian embassy in time. Hope so.

jules, 2013/02/07 07:32

My passport is also still voyaging around the embassies in Tokyo - who knows where exactly. It is a bit disconcerting.

Past to Future guest account, 2013/03/27 19:16

EGU : i arrive Sunday evening, leave Thursday evening, and 'm still available any lunchtimes so far. Michel.

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pmip3/wg/p2f/meetings.txt · Last modified: 2015/05/13 12:46 by jules